Skip to content
Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
Final/OTTV NHLN, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 in overtime, John Tavares scoring at 4:05. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Lightning led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 4:05 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 5.4 to 3.5; shots on goal were TOR 52, TBL 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 27 of 27 (1.000), 3.1 goals saved above expected; Jonas Johansson stopped 48 of 52 (.923), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A), 2. Nikita Kucherov (2 G, 1 A), 3. Alex Barré-Boulet (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Barré-Boulet1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR11701022015452
TBLTBL3801201100331

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(4)
    M. Knies (1), J. Tavares (7)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:16
  2. TBL
    N. Kucherov(5)PPG
    B. Point (6), V. Hedman (5)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-1
    6:26
  3. TBL
    A. Barré-Boulet(1)
    N. Kucherov (3), B. Point (7)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    10:04
  4. TBL
    N. Kucherov(6)PPG
    M. Sergachev (2), S. Stamkos (4)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-3
    13:29

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(1)
    M. Domi (2)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-3
    12:11
  2. TOR
    M. Knies(2)
    M. Domi (3), D. Kampf (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +36 ptsVideo
    3-3
    14:33

Overtime

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(2)
    W. Nylander (5), J. Klingberg (4)
    tip-inxG 0.18win prob +51 ptsVideo
    4-3
    4:05

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 6:10TORMatthew Knies · Cross checkingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 6:43TBLErik Cernak · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 13:24TORJake McCabe · Hookingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 18:04TBLMichael Eyssimont · Broken stick2 min

2nd

  • 3:06TORJohn Klingberg · Illegal check to headdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 4:40TORWilliam Nylander · Trippingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, OT 4:05 — TOR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.29N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.27B. Point · On goal · xG 0.19A. Barré-Boulet · Goal · xG 0.19N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.16A. Barré-Boulet · On goal · xG 0.16S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.15T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.15N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.13B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.11A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.09A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.09N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.09D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.09V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.09T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.09T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.08A. Barré-Boulet · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.08W. Merela · On goal · xG 0.07B. Point · On goal · xG 0.06B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.06B. Point · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.04B. Point · On goal · xG 0.03W. Merela · On goal · xG 0.03D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.03D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.03W. Merela · On goal · xG 0.03A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL3 G · 3.5 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
5.44 G
All situations
3 G3.5
4.74 G
Even strength
1 G2.8
0.60 G
Power play
2 G0.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 109 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR75%25%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 5.19 – 3.38

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
52
Shots on goal
31
41%
Faceoffs
59%
0/2
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
14
Hits
15
20
Blocked shots
15
2
Giveaways
5
7
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
34A. MatthewsC000041.240002625:34
44M. RiellyD000030.25110—25:08
16M. MarnerR000070.74000—24:41
37T. LiljegrenD000+110.02110—23:55
88W. NylanderR112+160.34012—22:16
78T. BrodieD000+120.03140—20:46
22J. McCabeD000+130.26432—20:31
91J. TavaresC112+171.142105718:37
59T. BertuzziL000010.10010—17:42
3J. KlingbergD011+120.14022—17:41
19C. JarnkrokC000020.17010015:13
23M. KniesL213+230.28112—14:54
64D. KampfC011+220.101105014:43
11M. DomiC022+210.101005014:13
55M. GiordanoD000+130.05130—14:10
29P. HolmbergR000020.021002506:52
18N. GregorL000030.38000—05:52
75R. ReavesR000000.00000—05:06
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)272701.0003.09+3.0950:36
35I. Samsonov413.2500.42-2.5813:29

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).