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Stars at Avalanche
NHL

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
1
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 5-1. The Stars scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Avalanche led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Andrew Cogliano's goal at 7:09 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 71% to 86%. Expected goals were close — DAL 2.3, COL 2.3; shots on goal were DAL 34, COL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 2.7 goals below expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Alexandar Georgiev (33 saves, .971), 2. Andrew Cogliano (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    A. Georgiev33 saves, .971
  2. ★★
    COL
    A. Cogliano1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL11101508134
COLCOL2153606527

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    L. Stankoven(2)
    W. Johnston (23), J. Robertson (39)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:00
  2. COL
    J. Kiviranta(3)
    A. Cogliano (12), D. Toews (23)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    2:08
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(31)
    N. MacKinnon (63)
    backhandxG 0.29win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    5:58

2nd period

  1. COL
    A. Cogliano(6)
    C. Wagner (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    7:09
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(35)
    A. Lehkonen (10), C. Makar (49)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-4
    7:58
  3. COL
    A. Lehkonen(9)PPG
    J. Drouin (23), M. Rantanen (45)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +2 ptsVideo
    1-5
    14:15

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·COL 4 PIM

1st

  • 19:28COLBowen Byram · Trippingdrawn by Ty Dellandrea2 min

2nd

  • 13:20DALWyatt Johnston · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 9:21COLSamuel Girard · Interferencedrawn by Ty Dellandrea2 min
  • 12:19DALJoe Pavelski · Hookingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDAL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Andrew Cogliano, 2nd 7:09 — COL 71% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.29M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.20A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.18N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.18N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.16N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.15N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.14A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.09R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.09A. Cogliano · Missed · xG 0.08A. Cogliano · Goal · xG 0.08J. Kiviranta · Goal · xG 0.07C. Wagner · Missed · xG 0.06J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.02R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.02R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.02J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cogliano · Missed · xG 0.01M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.01M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.01L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.01A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.01R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.00A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.00M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.00
COL5 G · 2.3 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCOL
2.31 G
All situations
5 G2.3
1.71 G
Even strength
4 G1.9
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL50%50%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 2.26

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCOL
34
Shots on goal
27
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
12
Hits
29
12
Blocked shots
12
1
Giveaways
6
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000030.08010—23:03
55T. HarleyD000000.19010—21:33
23E. LindellD000-310.04030—19:58
2J. HakanpääD000-200.01220—18:11
20R. SuterD000-120.02010—17:55
53W. JohnstonC011+140.190022017:51
21J. RobertsonL011+140.11200—16:45
44J. HanleyD000000.00010—16:13
18S. SteelC000-320.10000015:55
95M. DucheneC000-340.260006415:46
11L. StankovenC101+110.10000015:44
24R. HintzC000000.000108815:32
16J. PavelskiC000020.322025015:24
14J. BennL000050.350005014:52
15C. SmithC000-120.12100014:01
12R. FaksaC000-110.0820010013:40
10T. DellandreaC000-120.361001312:48
27M. MarchmentL000-310.00220—11:54
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)27225.8152.31-2.6960:00

Season series

COL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).