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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
Dallas Stars
3
FinalTV ALT, BSSWX·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 6-3. The Avalanche came back from three goals down. The Stars led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikko Rantanen's goal at 14:32 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.6 to 3.1; shots on goal were COL 38, DAL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 25 of 28 (.893); Jake Oettinger stopped 32 of 37 (.865), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Valeri Nichushkin (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 1 A), 3. Tyler Seguin (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    V. Nichushkin1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    T. Seguin2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL07216415638
DALDAL2711506328

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(4)
    M. Marchment (4), M. Duchene (8)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    10:33
  2. DAL
    J. Pavelski(7)PPG
    J. Benn (9), J. Robertson (10)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-2
    14:21

2nd period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(5)
    M. Marchment (5), E. Lindell (5)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    2:12
  2. COL
    M. Wood(3)
    R. Colton (2), C. Makar (18)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-3
    13:27
  3. COL
    R. Johansen(6)PPG
    C. Makar (19), M. Rantanen (12)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-3
    17:09

3rd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(6)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.13win prob +26 ptsVideo
    3-3
    4:19
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(11)
    D. Toews (8), V. Nichushkin (7)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +39 ptsVideo
    4-3
    14:32
  3. COL
    A. Cogliano(2)
    J. Kiviranta (3), S. Girard (3)
    wristxG 0.35win prob +11 ptsVideo
    5-3
    14:43
  4. COL
    R. Colton(6)EN
    C. Makar (20)
    snapxG 0.30Video
    6-3
    19:30

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·DAL 8 PIM

1st

  • 14:01COLJonathan Drouin · High stickingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min

2nd

  • 2:27COLLogan O'Connor · Hookingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 2:56DALRoope Hintz · Hookingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 7:26COLNathan MacKinnon · Holdingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 8:30COLJoel Kiviranta · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 13:27DALserved by M. Marchment · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 15:49DALRoope Hintz · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min

3rd

  • 1:25DALJamie Benn · Trippingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Mikko Rantanen, 3rd 14:32 — COL 48% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.25J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.22W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.18J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.17J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.16R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.15J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.15T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.15T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.14J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.12R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.11J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.10M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.10M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.10J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.09J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.09M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.08M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.08T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.06S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.06C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.06R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.05E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.05J. Hakanpää · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.04C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.03M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.03J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.02R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.02W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.02R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.02J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.00W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL3 G · 3.1 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
3.65 G
All situations
3 G3.1
3.04 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.31 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL54%46%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.27 – 3.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
38
Shots on goal
28
40%
Faceoffs
60%
1/4
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
27
Hits
19
13
Blocked shots
14
6
Giveaways
9
1
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD033+220.20130—26:14
7D. ToewsD011+450.25130—24:43
96M. RantanenR112+250.302004024:24
29N. MacKinnonC000+240.182023624:05
13V. NichushkinR112+250.62310—23:06
49S. GirardD011020.02220—20:52
4B. ByramD000-220.08110—20:14
20R. ColtonC112+110.314105413:24
25L. O'ConnorR000030.33202—13:05
22F. OlofssonL000+200.101003312:51
3J. JohnsonD000+110.03010—12:41
82C. JonesD000+100.00000—12:25
28M. WoodL101030.63100—12:19
12R. JohansenC101-110.100004010:55
94J. KivirantaL011+210.01212—10:53
90T. TatarL000-100.00100—10:47
27J. DrouinL000-120.07302—10:35
11A. CoglianoC101+110.351003310:07
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)28253.8933.08+0.0860:00

Season series

COL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).