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Red Wings at Maple Leafs
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV BSDET, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Red Wings answered. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Andrew Copp's goal at 18:20 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 48% to 95%. Expected goals were close — DET 2.4, TOR 2.6; shots on goal were DET 24, TOR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. James Reimer stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Larkin (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G), 3. Andrew Copp (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G
  3. ★★★
    DET
    A. Copp1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET0101737424
TORTOR0721409230

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    P. Holmberg(2)
    M. Rielly (28)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:32
  2. DET
    D. Larkin(17)
    D. Perron (10)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +21 ptsVideo
    1-1
    15:39
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(18)
    T. Bertuzzi (13), J. McCabe (13)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +22 ptsVideo
    1-2
    18:18

3rd period

  1. DET
    D. Sprong(11)
    A. DeBrincat (23)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-2
    2:46
  2. DET
    A. Copp(8)
    M. Rasmussen (9)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +47 ptsVideo
    3-2
    18:20
  3. DET
    L. Raymond(12)EN
    B. Chiarot (9), D. Larkin (21)
    wristxG 0.65win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:41

Penalties

DET 6 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:52DETLucas Raymond · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 8:14DETJeff Petry · Holdingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 11:35TORTyler Bertuzzi · Slashingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min
  • 14:51DETDaniel Sprong · Holdingdrawn by Timothy Liljegren2 min

2nd

  • 10:59TORMorgan Rielly · Hookingdrawn by Joseph Veleno2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalDET goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Andrew Copp, 3rd 18:20 — DET 48% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.20T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.19M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.14T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.13A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.12D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.10P. Holmberg · Goal · xG 0.10C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.08C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.05J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.04N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.03N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.01P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.00W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 2.6 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTOR
2.43 G
All situations
2 G2.6
1.13 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET34%66%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.76 – 2.60

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTOR
24
Shots on goal
30
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
43
Hits
28
20
Blocked shots
14
16
Giveaways
16
7
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD000+110.01520—22:50
8B. ChiarotD011010.01520—22:44
71D. LarkinC112050.190004821:38
46J. PetryD000-110.06252—20:51
37J. CompherL000+230.113103320:39
41S. GostisbehereD000010.10100—20:09
23L. RaymondL101020.65322—17:54
93A. DeBrincatR011000.1320010017:16
18A. CoppC101+120.142004316:59
27M. RasmussenC011+120.20830016:09
57D. PerronL011010.03200—16:08
2O. MaattaD000+200.03200—15:26
17D. SprongR101+140.38112—14:20
3J. HollD000+210.03210—13:50
90J. VelenoC000000.30110013:34
14R. FabbriC000000.05200012:19
36C. FischerR000+100.002105010:35
88P. KaneR000000.00010—01:07
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
47J. Reimer(W)30282.9332.61+0.6159:32

Season series

DET leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).