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Maple Leafs at Red Wings
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
Detroit Red Wings
2
FinalTV NHLN, BSDET·Avicii Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 3-2. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Red Wings led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 14:27 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 87%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.6, DET 2.6; shots on goal were TOR 29, DET 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Alex Lyon stopped 26 of 29 (.897). Three stars: 1. William Nylander (1 G, 2 A), 2. John Tavares (1 G, 2 A), 3. Lucas Raymond (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    L. Raymond1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0509315329
DETDET07212010229

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. DET
    D. Sprong(5)Penalty shot
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.22win prob +19 ptsVideo
    0-1
    12:52
  2. DET
    L. Raymond(7)
    B. Chiarot (5), A. DeBrincat (6)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    14:44

3rd period

  1. TOR
    T. Bertuzzi(4)
    W. Nylander (13), J. Tavares (11)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:50
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(11)PPG
    M. Marner (13), J. Tavares (12)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +29 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:03
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(7)
    T. Bertuzzi (4), W. Nylander (14)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +39 ptsVideo
    3-2
    14:27

Penalties

TOR 12 PIM·DET 10 PIM

1st

  • 4:00TORMitch Marner · Hookingdrawn by Alex DeBrincat2 min
  • 7:49DETMichael Rasmussen · Slashingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 17:26TORTyler Bertuzzi · Slashingdrawn by Olli Maatta2 min

2nd

  • 0:16DETJ.T. Compher · Holdingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 2:15TORMax Domi · Slashingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min
  • 2:15TORMax Domi · Roughingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min
  • 2:15DETMoritz Seider · Cross checkingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
  • 2:15DETMoritz Seider · Roughingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
  • 9:15TORMark Giordano · Roughingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min
  • 12:52TORMorgan Rielly · Ps covering puck in crease0 min
  • 15:29TORserved by N. Robertson · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 12:46DETMoritz Seider · Trippingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTOR goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, 3rd 14:27 — TOR 48% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.29K. Kostin · On goal · xG 0.24D. Sprong · Goal · xG 0.22J. Veleno · On goal · xG 0.19D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.14D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.13D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.10D. Sprong · Missed · xG 0.09J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.08D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.08J. Veleno · Missed · xG 0.07R. Fabbri · Missed · xG 0.07A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.07A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.07A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.06L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.05D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.05D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.05M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.05D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.04L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.04D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.04A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.04A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.03A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.03C. Fischer · Missed · xG 0.02J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.02D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Sprong · Missed · xG 0.01R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.01D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.01K. Kostin · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.00B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.00
DET2 G · 2.6 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDET
2.63 G
All situations
2 G2.6
1.92 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
0.51 G
Power play
0 G1.2
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR52%48%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.51 – 2.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDET
29
Shots on goal
29
56%
Faceoffs
44%
1/3
Power play
0/4
12
Penalty minutes
10
12
Hits
22
20
Blocked shots
17
7
Giveaways
4
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000-100.00040—23:44
78T. BrodieD000-110.00020—23:43
22J. McCabeD000+210.06100—23:04
55M. GiordanoD000+220.01062—21:13
16M. MarnerR011020.43022—20:56
88W. NylanderR123+240.28100—20:31
34A. MatthewsC000040.281104119:14
91J. TavaresC123+210.191107016:59
59T. BertuzziL112+270.53202—15:48
64D. KampfC000010.242006414:55
23M. KniesL000010.14000—14:17
85W. LagessonD000000.00120—14:03
19C. JarnkrokC000-110.2200010013:09
18N. GregorL000020.07220—12:03
11M. DomiC000-110.100045010:37
2S. BenoitD000010.01100—10:09
74B. McMannC000000.00000008:58
89N. RobertsonL000-100.00000—08:43
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35I. Samsonov(W)29272.9312.56+0.5659:56

Season series

DET leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).