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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2. The Senators came back from two goals down. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Drake Batherson's goal at 14:25 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 27% to 47%. Expected goals were close — OTT 3.9, TOR 3.8; shots on goal were OTT 30, TOR 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Joonas Korpisalo stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Martin Jones stopped 26 of 29 (.897). Three stars: 1. Drake Batherson (2 G), 2. Tyler Bertuzzi (1 G), 3. Parker Kelly (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    D. Batherson2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    T. Bertuzzi1 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    P. Kelly1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT06214210430
TORTOR21208016236

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(8)
    A. Matthews (14)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:41
  2. TOR
    T. Bertuzzi(6)
    M. Rielly (20), W. Nylander (30)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    6:04

2nd period

  1. OTT
    P. Kelly(2)SHG
    C. Giroux (19)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    10:17
  2. OTT
    D. Batherson(12)
    T. Stützle (26)
    wristxG 0.33win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-2
    14:25

3rd period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(13)
    V. Tarasenko (15), T. Hamonic (3)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-2
    3:44
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(16)EN
    V. Tarasenko (16)
    wristxG 0.85win prob +8 ptsVideo
    4-2
    17:33

Penalties

OTT 11 PIM·TOR 7 PIM

1st

  • 11:03TORTJ Brodie · Trippingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 13:55OTTArtem Zub · Slashingdrawn by Nick Robertson2 min

2nd

  • 9:36OTTJosh Norris · High stickingdrawn by Noah Gregor2 min
  • 19:33OTTJosh Norris · Interferencedrawn by John Tavares2 min

3rd

  • 3:22OTTRidly Greig · Fightingdrawn by William Lagesson5 min
  • 3:22TORWilliam Lagesson · Fightingdrawn by Ridly Greig5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Drake Batherson, 2nd 14:25 — OTT 27% → 47%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.24A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.24M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.23T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.19W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.19N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.18T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.18J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.17T. Bertuzzi · Goal · xG 0.13C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.11N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.09T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.08C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.08T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.08M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.07M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.07N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.07M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.06C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.05N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.05M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.05W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.03N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.03J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.03T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.03J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.02M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.02M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.01D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.00M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.00M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 3.8 xG · 61 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
3.93 G
All situations
2 G3.8
2.02 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.10 G
Power play
0 G1.4
0.51 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT31%69%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.50 – 3.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
30
Shots on goal
36
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/1
Power play
0/3
11
Penalty minutes
7
31
Hits
31
24
Blocked shots
11
14
Giveaways
9
10
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD000+110.00040—25:44
2A. ZubD000+220.47012—24:45
6J. ChychrunD000+120.03200—21:42
28C. GirouxR011010.251005621:40
18T. StützleC011+130.330103819:44
23T. HamonicD011020.10010—18:19
7B. TkachukL101020.935005018:03
9J. NorrisC000020.300245817:28
19D. BathersonR202+140.511006716:43
91V. TarasenkoR022+210.10400—14:56
27P. KellyC101+130.25420014:25
26E. BrannstromD000000.00130—14:17
24J. Bernard-DockerD000000.00050—14:00
81D. KubalikL000020.03300—13:03
71R. GreigC000020.274152511:58
12M. KastelicC000010.021305009:26
13J. SmejkalL000010.26200—08:59
59A. CrookshankC000010.01310008:48
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70J. Korpisalo(W)36342.9443.80+1.8060:00

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).