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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Ottawa Senators
3
FinalTV TSN5, TSN4·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 4-3. The Senators scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was David Kampf's goal at 17:40 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 47% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.1 to 1.9; shots on goal were TOR 22, OTT 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 29 of 31 (.935); Anton Forsberg stopped 18 of 22 (.818), 2.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Joseph Woll (29 saves, .935), 2. William Nylander (1 G), 3. Jacob Bernard-Docker (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Woll29 saves, .935
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    J. Bernard-Docker1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR082529422
OTTOTT11608217341

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(6)
    J. Chychrun (8)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-1
    19:34

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(9)
    M. Rielly (14), T. Brodie (4)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    1:42
  2. TOR
    D. Kampf(2)
    J. Tavares (15), J. McCabe (3)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +23 ptsVideo
    2-1
    17:40

3rd period

  1. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(6)
    M. Domi (12), N. Robertson (4)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    3:35
  2. OTT
    J. Bernard-Docker(1)
    D. Batherson (10), T. Stützle (20)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    5:14
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(13)
    J. McCabe (4), T. Brodie (5)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +13 ptsVideo
    4-2
    13:03
  4. OTT
    C. Giroux(8)
    J. Sanderson (9)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-3
    18:07

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·OTT 2 PIM

1st

  • 17:25OTTRidly Greig · Boardingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min

2nd

  • 19:31TORConor Timmins · Trippingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

3rd

  • 19:09TORSimon Benoit · High stickingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: David Kampf, 2nd 17:40 — TOR 47% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.25T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.17M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.17J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.16J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.15V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.14C. Giroux · Goal · xG 0.13J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.13M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.12R. Chartier · On goal · xG 0.11J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.10J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.10V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.07D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.07V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.07J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.06T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.05E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.03M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.03D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.03R. Chartier · On goal · xG 0.02J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bernard-Docker · Goal · xG 0.02J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.02V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.01M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.01R. Chartier · On goal · xG 0.00T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.00J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.00T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 3.1 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
1.94 G
All situations
3 G3.1
1.74 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR31%69%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.93 – 3.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
22
Shots on goal
41
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
30
Hits
18
22
Blocked shots
21
7
Giveaways
14
8
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD022+200.00130—25:08
44M. RiellyD011070.15100—23:10
78T. BrodieD022+100.00120—22:40
34A. MatthewsC000010.460303820:13
16M. MarnerR101+110.2001010020:03
88W. NylanderR101040.1610010019:34
25C. TimminsD000000.00102—18:29
91J. TavaresC011+200.000007118:10
2S. BenoitD000000.00852—18:07
23M. KniesL000-100.00500—17:06
59T. BertuzziL000000.13000—16:44
19C. JarnkrokC101010.180006714:29
64D. KampfC101030.303205013:16
11M. DomiC011010.1600010011:50
18N. GregorL000020.0730010011:18
48M. LajoieD000000.00040—10:28
89N. RobertsonL011+110.11110—09:16
75R. ReavesR000-110.00510—07:08
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll31292.9352.11+0.1150:22
31M. Jones(W)1091.9000.97-0.0309:38

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).