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Blue Jackets at Sabres
NHL

Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Columbus Blue Jackets
▸9
Buffalo Sabres
4
FinalTV MSG-B, BSOH·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Columbus Blue Jackets beat the Buffalo Sabres 9-4. The Sabres scored first; the Blue Jackets answered. The Blue Jackets led 7-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Adam Fantilli's goal at 14:40 of the first period, which took the Blue Jackets' chances from 46% to 61%. Expected goals favored the Blue Jackets, 2.9 to 2.6; shots on goal were CBJ 34, BUF 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blue Jackets win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Daniil Tarasov stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.4 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 11 of 16 (.688), 3.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kirill Marchenko (3 G), 2. Johnny Gaudreau (1 G, 2 A), 3. Zach Werenski (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CBJ
    K. Marchenko3 G
  2. ★★
    CBJ
    J. Gaudreau1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    CBJ
    Z. Werenski2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CBJCBJ31441327934
BUFBUF14114211429

Scoring

13 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(8)
    D. Cozens (12), C. Mittelstadt (18)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:30
  2. CBJ
    J. Gaudreau(6)
    A. Fantilli (10)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:35
  3. CBJ
    A. Fantilli(9)
    J. Gaudreau (13), I. Provorov (16)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    14:40
  4. CBJ
    K. Marchenko(11)PPG
    J. Gaudreau (14), Z. Werenski (23)
    between-legsxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-1
    19:48

2nd period

  1. CBJ
    K. Marchenko(12)
    E. Chinakhov (5), A. Peeke (4)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +11 ptsVideo
    4-1
    7:37
  2. CBJ
    K. Marchenko(13)
    E. Chinakhov (6), I. Provorov (17)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +5 ptsVideo
    5-1
    7:55
  3. CBJ
    E. Gudbranson(3)
    A. Texier (4), S. Kuraly (5)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +2 ptsVideo
    6-1
    8:52
  4. CBJ
    S. Kuraly(6)
    A. Texier (5), B. Gaunce (1)
    tip-inxG 0.10Video
    7-1
    12:27
  5. BUF
    K. Okposo(6)
    C. Mittelstadt (19), V. Olofsson (8)
    wristxG 0.07Video
    7-2
    18:54

3rd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(8)PPG
    R. Dahlin (19), A. Tuch (11)
    slapxG 0.08Video
    7-3
    2:57
  2. BUF
    D. Cozens(6)
    Z. Benson (7), J. Peterka (11)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +1 ptsVideo
    7-4
    7:51
  3. CBJ
    C. Sillinger(2)
    Z. Werenski (24), K. Johnson (7)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +1 ptsVideo
    8-4
    8:30
  4. CBJ
    K. Johnson(4)
    C. Sillinger (9), E. Bemstrom (4)
    slapxG 0.27Video
    9-4
    10:59

Penalties

CBJ 6 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 19:03BUFPeyton Krebs · High stickingdrawn by Egor Chinakhov2 min

2nd

  • 9:44BUFKyle Okposo · Trippingdrawn by Adam Fantilli2 min
  • 19:25CBJJake Bean · Interferencedrawn by Zach Benson2 min

3rd

  • 1:55CBJAndrew Peeke · Holdingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 14:03CBJDmitri Voronkov · Hookingdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCBJ goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Adam Fantilli, 1st 14:40 — CBJ 46% → 61%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.16R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.15E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.14A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.14T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.12E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.09J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.08D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.08T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.08D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.08Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.07P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.06J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.06J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.05D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.04Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04O. Power · Missed · xG 0.04M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.04D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.03M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.03P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.03C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.03D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Clifton · Missed · xG 0.02O. Power · Missed · xG 0.02J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 2.6 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CBJvsBUF
2.99 G
All situations
4 G2.6
2.68 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.21 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CBJ55%45%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.84 – 2.54

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CBJvsBUF
34
Shots on goal
29
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
13
Hits
26
16
Blocked shots
13
5
Giveaways
8
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Columbus Blue Jackets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8Z. WerenskiD022+320.21040—23:32
9I. ProvorovD022+210.03000—22:20
2A. PeekeD011+100.00122—19:08
77N. BlankenburgD000+200.03230—18:42
22J. BeanD000+110.03012—17:50
17J. DanforthR000020.061002517:07
44E. GudbransonD101+130.09130—16:18
4C. SillingerC112+250.411105015:47
59E. ChinakhovR022+120.08000—15:30
86K. MarchenkoR303+140.26000—15:20
7S. KuralyC112+330.212005015:16
10D. VoronkovL000000.000124114:37
42A. TexierL022+220.20000—14:33
11A. FantilliC112020.363103814:30
13J. GaudreauL123010.07000—14:22
91K. JohnsonC112+210.2700010013:54
52E. BemstromC011+230.4120010013:40
16B. GaunceC011+220.14000012:32
Columbus Blue Jackets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40D. Tarasov(W)29254.8622.55-1.4560:00

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).