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Hurricanes at Avalanche
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
4
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV ALT, BSSO·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Carolina Hurricanes 6-4. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Avalanche led 6-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Fredrik Olofsson's goal at 12:21 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 33% to 53%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.6 to 2.7; shots on goal were CAR 27, COL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 21 of 27 (.778), 3.2 goals below expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Logan O'Connor (1 G, 1 A), 2. Artturi Lehkonen (1 G, 3 A), 3. Ryan Johansen (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    L. O'Connor1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    A. Lehkonen1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    R. Johansen1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR1621615427
COLCOL1125807627

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    J. Kotkaniemi(3)
    S. Noesen (4), J. Drury (1)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    16:09
  2. COL
    R. Johansen(2)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (3), A. Lehkonen (2)
    deflectedxG 0.11win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-1
    19:54

2nd period

  1. COL
    L. O'Connor(3)SHG
    A. Cogliano (3)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:57
  2. CAR
    B. Burns(2)PPG
    D. Orlov (2), S. Noesen (5)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    9:17
  3. CAR
    M. Bunting(2)
    M. Necas (4), J. Slavin (4)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +19 ptsVideo
    3-2
    10:42
  4. COL
    F. Olofsson(1)
    L. O'Connor (1), B. Byram (1)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-3
    12:21
  5. COL
    A. Lehkonen(2)PPG
    R. Johansen (1), C. Makar (3)
    backhandxG 0.27win prob +16 pts
    3-4
    14:10
  6. COL
    N. MacKinnon(3)
    A. Lehkonen (3), V. Nichushkin (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-5
    15:57
  7. COL
    M. Rantanen(4)PPG
    C. Makar (4), A. Lehkonen (4)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +5 ptsVideo
    3-6
    19:35

3rd period

  1. CAR
    J. Slavin(3)
    J. Kotkaniemi (4), S. Jarvis (3)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +2 ptsVideo
    4-6
    12:26

Penalties

CAR 10 PIM·COL 10 PIM

1st

  • 6:45CARJalen Chatfield · Boardingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 14:07COLNathan MacKinnon · Cross checkingdrawn by Jesper Fast2 min
  • 19:40CARJordan Martinook · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

2nd

  • 0:54COLBowen Byram · Trippingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 7:44COLCale Makar · Interferencedrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 13:37CARBrady Skjei · Interferencedrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 16:09COLArtturi Lehkonen · High stickingdrawn by Jordan Staal2 min
  • 19:22CARMichael Bunting · Holdingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

3rd

  • 3:33CARJordan Staal · Hookingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 6:55COLBowen Byram · Interferencedrawn by Callahan Burke2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalCAR goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Fredrik Olofsson, 2nd 12:21 — COL 33% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.45N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.42A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.27N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.18N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.15L. O'Connor · Goal · xG 0.15N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.13M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.12J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.12R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.11R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.11F. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.11F. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.11R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.10A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.09R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.07R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.07R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.07C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.07J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.06V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.05R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.04R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.04D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.03B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.02J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.01D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 3.6 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsCOL
2.74 G
All situations
6 G3.6
1.53 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
1.21 G
Power play
3 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR49%51%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.67 – 2.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsCOL
27
Shots on goal
27
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/5
Power play
3/5
10
Penalty minutes
10
14
Hits
12
7
Blocked shots
13
2
Giveaways
7
8
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8B. BurnsD101+220.17110—24:22
76B. SkjeiD000000.00202—21:04
24S. JarvisR011-120.1000010020:32
88M. NecasC011-120.150002520:24
58M. BuntingL101-150.8200210018:46
86T. TeravainenC000010.160004518:19
74J. SlavinD112+140.05230—18:15
5J. ChatfieldD000010.06002—17:57
82J. KotkaniemiC112+110.211101417:47
77T. DeAngeloD000-210.01010—17:41
11J. StaalC000-100.000025816:24
23S. NoesenR022+220.3530010015:54
7D. OrlovD011000.01100—15:49
48J. MartinookL000040.11102—15:03
71J. FastR000020.53010—13:24
18J. DruryC011+100.000003613:16
68C. BurkeC000000.00300007:06
28B. LemieuxL000-100.00000—06:00
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
52P. Kochetkov(L)27216.7782.77-3.2356:57

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).