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Sabres at Flyers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸6
Philadelphia Flyers
3
FinalTV NBCSP, MSG-B·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Philadelphia Flyers 6-3. The Flyers scored first; the Sabres answered. The Sabres led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jordan Greenway's goal at 2:40 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 63% to 80%. Expected goals were close — BUF 3.0, PHI 2.9; shots on goal were BUF 29, PHI 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 39 of 42 (.929); Felix Sandstrom stopped 23 of 29 (.793), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Tuch (3 G), 2. Jeff Skinner (1 G, 1 A), 3. Morgan Frost (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    A. Tuch3 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    M. Frost2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF1541717629
PHIPHI114117111342

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    M. Frost(17)
    B. Lemieux (7), W. Allison (6)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    16:35
  2. BUF
    K. Okposo(11)
    P. Krebs (16), M. Samuelsson (8)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    19:50

2nd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(33)
    C. Mittelstadt (37)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    1:25
  2. BUF
    J. Greenway(5)
    T. Jost (17), R. Dahlin (53)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    2:40
  3. BUF
    J. Skinner(33)
    C. Mittelstadt (38), O. Power (27)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +11 pts
    4-1
    3:46
  4. BUF
    A. Tuch(34)
    C. Mittelstadt (39), J. Skinner (40)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +3 pts
    5-1
    16:02
  5. PHI
    M. Frost(18)
    J. Farabee (22), T. Sanheim (15)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +3 pts
    5-2
    16:24

3rd period

  1. PHI
    T. Konecny(28)
    N. Cates (23)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +6 pts
    5-3
    5:11
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(35)SHG
    J. Quinn (22)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +2 pts
    6-3
    16:33

Penalties

BUF 14 PIM·PHI 16 PIM

2nd

  • 11:19PHINoah Cates · Trippingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min

3rd

  • 2:20PHIIvan Provorov · Trippingdrawn by Mattias Samuelsson2 min
  • 6:00BUFRasmus Dahlin · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 14:40BUFRasmus Dahlin · Holdingdrawn by Morgan Frost2 min
  • 19:10PHIScott Laughton · Slashingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
  • 19:10PHIScott Laughton · Misconductdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt10 min
  • 19:10BUFCasey Mittelstadt · Misconductdrawn by Scott Laughton10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalBUF goalFinal: PHI 0%

Biggest swing: Jordan Greenway, 2nd 2:40 — BUF 63% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Frost · Goal · xG 0.16W. Allison · On goal · xG 0.16B. Lemieux · On goal · xG 0.14I. Provorov · Missed · xG 0.14B. Lemieux · On goal · xG 0.13S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.13W. Allison · Missed · xG 0.12O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.11K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.10M. Frost · Goal · xG 0.10J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.09J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.09M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.09K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.09J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.08M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.08O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.07K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.07T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.05T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.05O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.05O. Tippett · Missed · xG 0.05J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.04N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.04J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.04T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.04T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.04C. York · Missed · xG 0.03T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.03N. Deslauriers · On goal · xG 0.03C. York · On goal · xG 0.03N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.03N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.03T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.03T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.03N. Cates · Missed · xG 0.02T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.02T. Sanheim · Missed · xG 0.02T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.02N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.02M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.02T. Konecny · Goal · xG 0.02C. York · Missed · xG 0.02N. Deslauriers · On goal · xG 0.02T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.01B. Lemieux · On goal · xG 0.01T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.01T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.01K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.01J. Braun · Missed · xG 0.01B. Lemieux · Missed · xG 0.01N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.01I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.01K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.00J. Braun · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI3 G · 2.9 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPHI
3.06 G
All situations
3 G2.9
2.35 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.51 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF51%49%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.94 – 2.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPHI
29
Shots on goal
42
40%
Faceoffs
60%
0/3
Power play
0/2
14
Penalty minutes
16
15
Hits
20
13
Blocked shots
7
7
Giveaways
8
5
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
10H. JokiharjuD000-210.01210—22:59
23M. SamuelssonD011+200.00010—22:35
25O. PowerD011000.00000—20:39
26R. DahlinD011+310.10114—19:48
89A. TuchR303+460.78110—18:51
19P. KrebsC011000.000004217:47
21K. OkposoR101030.191205617:43
37C. MittelstadtC033+300.0000103817:04
46I. LyubushkinD000+100.00230—16:05
28Z. GirgensonsC000030.30210016:02
53J. SkinnerL112+370.58000—15:37
61R. StillmanD000+200.00200—14:44
24D. CozensC000-230.270004714:39
22J. QuinnR011-110.08010—14:25
12J. GreenwayL101+120.28210—14:24
77J. PeterkaR000-210.11000—12:12
71V. OlofssonL000+100.11200—10:57
17T. JostC011+110.15010009:29
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(W)42393.9292.90-0.1060:00

Season series

PHI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).