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Sabres at Maple Leafs
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV MSG-B, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3. The Sabres came back from two goals down. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Cozens's goal at 9:39 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 48% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.9 to 1.9; shots on goal were BUF 29, TOR 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 1.1 goals below expected; Matt Murray stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Tuch (2 G), 2. Dylan Cozens (1 G, 1 A), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    A. Tuch2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    D. Cozens1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF0311739429
TORTOR01223113328

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(31)
    A. Kerfoot (20), M. Marner (60)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    1:11
  2. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(15)
    M. Marner (61), A. Matthews (35)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    4:13
  3. BUF
    J. Quinn(13)
    J. Peterka (16), O. Power (21)
    batxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    14:58

3rd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(29)
    T. Thompson (45), O. Power (22)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +25 pts
    2-2
    3:39
  2. BUF
    D. Cozens(26)
    R. Stillman (6), J. Peterka (17)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +32 pts
    3-2
    9:39
  3. BUF
    A. Tuch(30)PPG
    J. Skinner (38), D. Cozens (31)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +12 pts
    4-2
    11:19
  4. TOR
    W. Nylander(35)
    A. Matthews (36)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +3 pts
    4-3
    18:58

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 17:12BUFKyle Okposo · High stickingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

2nd

  • 7:10TORAlexander Kerfoot · Trippingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 12:52TORMark Giordano · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min

3rd

  • 10:07TORWilliam Nylander · High stickingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalBUF goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Dylan Cozens, 3rd 9:39 — BUF 48% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.17W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.15E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.14M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.12C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.11N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.08J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.05C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.05W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.05W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.05M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.04M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.04J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.03M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 1.9 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTOR
3.94 G
All situations
3 G1.9
2.23 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF70%30%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.96 – 1.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTOR
29
Shots on goal
28
34%
Faceoffs
66%
1/3
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
24
Hits
30
10
Blocked shots
15
10
Giveaways
14
18
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
10H. JokiharjuD000+220.09400—27:00
25O. PowerD022+200.00120—26:31
26R. DahlinD000-310.39220—21:18
72T. ThompsonC011+170.990002020:56
89A. TuchR202+151.03300—20:23
53J. SkinnerL011+120.27100—20:22
24D. CozensC112040.390205315:55
17T. JostC000010.080001315:42
46I. LyubushkinD000010.02210—15:36
37C. MittelstadtC000+100.000004314:45
22J. QuinnR101+110.15100—14:00
12J. GreenwayL000-100.01120—13:50
77J. PeterkaR022+200.19000—12:56
28Z. GirgensonsC000-210.10710012:50
61R. StillmanD011+100.00000—12:43
21K. OkposoR000-230.150024412:38
78J. BrysonD000-200.00100—11:53
19P. KrebsC000-210.001003308:43
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(W)28253.8931.88-1.1260:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).