Skip to content
Sabres at Maple Leafs
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Calle Jarnkrok's goal at 17:27 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 68% to 83%. Expected goals were close — BUF 3.1, TOR 3.1; shots on goal were BUF 34, TOR 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 1.9 goals below expected; Matt Murray stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (2 G), 2. John Tavares (1 G, 2 A), 3. Matt Murray (32 saves, .941).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Murray32 saves, .941

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF08112114234
TORTOR3111616523

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(10)PPG
    M. Marner (17), M. Rielly (16)
    tip-inxG 0.16win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    12:58
  2. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(4)
    P. Engvall (2), R. Sandin (5)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    17:27
  3. TOR
    M. Giordano(1)SHG
    M. Marner (18), D. Kampf (5)
    xG 0.16win prob +11 pts
    0-3
    18:21

2nd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(9)PPG
    D. Cozens (8), R. Dahlin (13)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    10:01
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(9)PPG
    J. Tavares (10), A. Matthews (12)
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +5 pts
    1-4
    14:50

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(10)
    J. Tavares (11)
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +1 pts
    1-5
    10:37
  2. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(5)PPG
    J. Quinn (5), V. Olofsson (2)
    wristxG 0.11
    2-5
    15:07

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·TOR 12 PIM

1st

  • 12:45BUFRiley Sheahan · Hookingdrawn by Jordie Benn2 min
  • 17:52TORJohn Tavares · Trippingdrawn by Owen Power2 min

2nd

  • 2:08TORRasmus Sandin · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Asplund2 min
  • 8:07TORAuston Matthews · Illegal check to headdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
  • 11:43TORWilliam Nylander · High stickingdrawn by Casey Fitzgerald2 min
  • 14:29BUFHenri Jokiharju · Slashingdrawn by David Kampf2 min

3rd

  • 5:22TORWilliam Nylander · Hookingdrawn by Victor Olofsson2 min
  • 13:54TORTimothy Liljegren · Boardingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 18:50BUFRiley Sheahan · Cross checkingdrawn by Rasmus Sandin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalBUF goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Calle Jarnkrok, 1st 17:27 — TOR 68% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.23D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.20C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.17M. Giordano · Goal · xG 0.16M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.16J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.16C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.15P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.15A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.14A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.12D. Malgin · On goal · xG 0.10M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.10W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.10D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.07J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.07P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.06T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.05D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.05D. Malgin · On goal · xG 0.05M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.04M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.04M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.03M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.03J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 3.1 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTOR
3.12 G
All situations
5 G3.1
1.50 G
Even strength
2 G2.2
1.62 G
Power play
2 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF51%49%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.12 – 3.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTOR
34
Shots on goal
23
38%
Faceoffs
62%
2/6
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
12
28
Hits
32
11
Blocked shots
19
14
Giveaways
14
7
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011-220.18600—26:21
25O. PowerD000000.00010—21:34
72T. ThompsonC000-190.902002921:02
24D. CozensC011050.512105821:00
89A. TuchR101-140.56110—20:31
53J. SkinnerL000-130.211003319:47
10H. JokiharjuD000-200.00312—19:44
77J. PeterkaR000010.10000—17:03
71V. OlofssonL011040.31100—15:52
22J. QuinnR011-100.03200—15:20
37C. MittelstadtC101020.171002515:17
45C. FitzgeraldD000-120.03200—14:50
78J. BrysonD000000.00230—14:30
46I. LyubushkinD000000.00120—12:17
29V. HinostrozaC000-100.00000012:02
19P. KrebsC000-100.002001711:58
74R. AsplundC000-220.13220010:02
8R. SheahanC000-200.000048009:06
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)23195.8263.08-1.9260:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).