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Predators at Blues
NHL

Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
St. Louis Blues
▸5
FinalTV BSSO, BSMW·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Nashville Predators 5-2. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Saad's goal at 8:30 of the second period, which took the Blues' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.8 to 3.1; shots on goal were NSH 26, STL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 1.2 goals below expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 24 of 26 (.923), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Robert Thomas (1 G, 1 A), 2. Brandon Saad (1 G, 1 A), 3. Tyler Tucker (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    R. Thomas1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    B. Saad1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    T. Tucker1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH0121717226
STLSTL01031528533

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. STL
    B. Schenn(11)
    J. Faulk (17), N. Mikkola (3)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    0:11
  2. NSH
    C. Sissons(7)
    C. Smith (9)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    2:36
  3. STL
    B. Saad(14)
    T. Pitlick (4), T. Tucker (1)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    8:30
  4. STL
    J. Kyrou(21)PPG
    R. Thomas (30), P. Buchnevich (23)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    1-3
    15:34

3rd period

  1. STL
    R. Thomas(12)
    B. Saad (6), C. Rosen (8)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +6 pts
    1-4
    1:03
  2. STL
    A. Toropchenko(3)
    T. Pitlick (5), N. Walker (3)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +2 pts
    1-5
    2:01
  3. NSH
    M. Ekholm(5)
    A. Carrier (4), T. Novak (5)
    backhandxG 0.05
    2-5
    17:52

Penalties

NSH 15 PIM·STL 13 PIM

1st

  • 5:38STLPavel Buchnevich · Hookingdrawn by Tommy Novak2 min

2nd

  • 2:58NSHJuuso Parssinen · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 14:31NSHMikael Granlund · Holdingdrawn by Alexey Toropchenko2 min

3rd

  • 3:31STLBrayden Schenn · Hookingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 4:14NSHNino Niederreiter · Hookingdrawn by Noel Acciari2 min
  • 6:43STLTyler Tucker · Fightingdrawn by Cole Smith5 min
  • 6:43NSHCole Smith · Fightingdrawn by Tyler Tucker5 min
  • 10:36NSHDante Fabbro · Holding the stickdrawn by Nathan Walker2 min
  • 10:44STLJustin Faulk · Interferencedrawn by Colton Sissons2 min
  • 16:16STLColton Parayko · Trippingdrawn by Tanner Jeannot2 min
  • 17:20NSHFilip Forsberg · High stickingdrawn by Noel Acciari2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalNSH goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Brandon Saad, 2nd 8:30 — STL 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.17A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.17J. Kyrou · Goal · xG 0.15J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.15B. Saad · Goal · xG 0.14I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.14B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.14R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.13J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.13J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.12J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.12R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.12B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.11J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.11C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.11N. Walker · On goal · xG 0.11I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.11N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.10J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.10B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.10B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.09N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.09J. Leivo · Missed · xG 0.08R. Thomas · Goal · xG 0.07I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.07P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.07N. Walker · Missed · xG 0.07N. Walker · On goal · xG 0.06J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.06N. Mikkola · On goal · xG 0.05A. Toropchenko · Goal · xG 0.05J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.05J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.05N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.04N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.04T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.04P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.04R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.04J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.04J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.04C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.03B. Schenn · Goal · xG 0.02C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.02C. Rosen · Missed · xG 0.02J. Leivo · Missed · xG 0.01N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.00
STL5 G · 3.8 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsSTL
3.12 G
All situations
5 G3.8
2.62 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH39%61%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.01 – 3.74

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsSTL
26
Shots on goal
33
29%
Faceoffs
71%
0/4
Power play
1/5
15
Penalty minutes
13
30
Hits
20
10
Blocked shots
10
6
Giveaways
7
9
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000-170.58020—24:51
27R. McDonaghD000-120.28100—21:13
14M. EkholmD101010.05000—19:13
3J. LauzonD000-120.13610—18:34
75J. ParssinenC000+100.061021716:35
13Y. TreninC000-110.27200016:33
84T. JeannotL000-200.00410—16:33
57D. FabbroD000-110.07222—16:29
45A. CarrierD011000.04220—16:25
9F. ForsbergL000020.13202—16:08
82T. NovakC011-120.420003815:09
92R. JohansenC000-210.171003314:59
10C. SissonsC101+130.351102514:52
8C. GlassC000000.001002514:00
95M. DucheneC000010.091105013:38
22N. NiederreiterR000-100.18302—13:04
64M. GranlundC000-210.10102012:27
36C. SmithR011020.22205—10:14
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)33285.8483.77-1.2360:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).