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Lightning at Blues
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
St. Louis Blues
2
FinalTV BSSUN, BSMW·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the St. Louis Blues 4-2. The Blues scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Perbix's goal at 12:44 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 66% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.5 to 2.1; shots on goal were TBL 30, STL 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 25 (.920); Jordan Binnington stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (2 G, 1 A), 2. Nick Perbix (1 G, 1 A), 3. Steven Stamkos (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Point2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Perbix1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL2921308430
STLSTL1711107225

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    T. Pitlick(2)
    A. Toropchenko (4)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:39
  2. TBL
    B. Point(24)
    N. Perbix (8)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    12:22
  3. TBL
    B. Point(25)PPG
    S. Stamkos (30), N. Kucherov (45)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +11 pts
    2-1
    16:43

2nd period

  1. TBL
    N. Perbix(4)
    M. Sergachev (25), B. Point (20)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    12:44
  2. STL
    P. Buchnevich(15)
    J. Kyrou (22), R. Thomas (29)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    13:55
  3. TBL
    A. Killorn(14)
    B. Hagel (19)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +18 pts
    4-2
    18:22

Penalties

TBL 6 PIM·STL 4 PIM

1st

  • 13:34TBLErik Cernak · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Schenn2 min
  • 16:15STLIvan Barbashev · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

  • 4:33STLNiko Mikkola · Hookingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 10:14TBLBrandon Hagel · Holdingdrawn by Colton Parayko2 min

3rd

  • 3:24TBLAlex Killorn · High stickingdrawn by Josh Leivo2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalTBL goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: Nick Perbix, 2nd 12:44 — TBL 66% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.22B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.19B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.18I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.17A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.12T. Pitlick · Goal · xG 0.10J. Neighbours · Missed · xG 0.09I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.09R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.09P. Buchnevich · Goal · xG 0.08J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.08R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.07R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.07J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.07P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.06B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.04J. Leivo · Missed · xG 0.04N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.04C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.04T. Tucker · Missed · xG 0.03B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.03C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.02A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.02J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.02T. Tucker · On goal · xG 0.02N. Alexandrov · On goal · xG 0.02T. Tucker · Missed · xG 0.01T. Tucker · On goal · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.01T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.00
STL2 G · 2.1 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsSTL
3.54 G
All situations
2 G2.1
3.33 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL72%28%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.40 – 2.09

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsSTL
30
Shots on goal
25
58%
Faceoffs
42%
1/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
20
12
Blocked shots
19
8
Giveaways
5
19
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000030.13000—24:38
98M. SergachevD011+120.06120—24:35
28I. ColeD000030.07010—24:25
81E. CernakD000010.04212—21:56
20N. PaulL000010.101005718:18
38B. HagelL011+220.19012—18:12
71A. CirelliC000010.150105418:12
91S. StamkosC011041.010006218:07
17A. KillornL101030.91002—17:46
86N. KucherovR011+220.26000—16:28
21B. PointC213+230.340107115:24
79R. ColtonC000020.06400013:39
24Z. BogosianD000010.03340—13:37
14P. MaroonL000000.00200—12:45
41P. BellemareL000-100.091005710:12
90V. NamestnikovC000-100.00010009:27
48N. PerbixD112+110.03000—08:38
10C. PerryR000-110.02100—07:41
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)25232.9202.10+0.1060:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).