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Utah Mammoth at Minnesota Wild

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Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Utah Mammoth 2-1. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mats Zuccarello's goal at 9:39 of the second period, which took the Wild's chances from 57% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 2.6 to 2.3; shots on goal were ARI 28, MIN 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Connor Ingram stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Marc-Andre Fleury (27 saves, .964), 2. Jared Spurgeon, 3. Frederick Gaudreau (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    M. Fleury27 saves, .964
  2. ★★
    MIN
    J. Spurgeon
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    F. Gaudreau1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ARIARI0808112128
MINMIN0621506227

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

  1. MIN
    snapxG 0.27win prob +17 pts
    0-1
    9:39
  2. MIN
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    10:30

3rd period

  1. ARI
    slapxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    5:42

Penalties

ARI 4 PIM·MIN 2 PIM

2nd

  • 4:36MINJake Middleton · Hookingdrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min
  • 7:45ARIClayton Keller · Interferencedrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 8:28ARIJack McBain · Roughingdrawn by Calen Addison2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalARI goalFinal: MIN 100%

Biggest swing: Mats Zuccarello, 2nd 9:39 — MIN 57% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Zuccarello · Goal · xG 0.27J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.18M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.17M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.16M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.15F. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.13M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.12K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.12J. Eriksson Ek · Missed · xG 0.11J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.11K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.11F. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.09M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.09R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.09C. Addison · On goal · xG 0.08B. Duhaime · On goal · xG 0.08M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.07J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.07J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.06S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.06R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.04R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.04J. Merrill · Missed · xG 0.04M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.03M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.02J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.02M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.02C. Addison · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.01F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.01M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.01J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.01M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.00J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.00B. Duhaime · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN2 G · 2.6 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ARIvsMIN
2.31 G
All situations
2 G2.6
2.01 G
Even strength
1 G1.6
0.30 G
Power play
1 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ARI43%57%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.23 – 2.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ARIvsMIN
28
Shots on goal
27
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/1
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
17
Hits
25
7
Blocked shots
16
6
Giveaways
7
3
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6J. ChychrunD011+130.17020—23:26
67L. CrouseL101+140.265005022:43
14S. GostisbehereD000+110.01000—22:38
9C. KellerR000020.240025020:07
8N. SchmaltzC000020.2600010019:33
29B. HaytonC000-110.050104318:55
90J. MoserD000020.09210—18:33
17N. BjugstadC000010.090005617:57
11D. GuentherR000020.29100—16:21
4J. VälimäkiD000010.02000—15:30
2P. NemethD000-110.03110—15:22
36C. FischerR000-140.18200—14:44
51T. StecherD000-110.08100—14:25
72T. BoydC000010.220003313:30
12N. RitchieL000010.15000—13:18
22J. McBainC011010.105222911:12
44Z. KassianR000+100.00000—09:57
3J. BrownD000000.00000—09:06
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39C. Ingram(L)27252.9262.62+0.6258:49

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).