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Flames at Jets
NHL

Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
2
Winnipeg Jets
▸3
FinalTV SNW, TSN3·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Calgary Flames 3-2. The Jets scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Gagner's goal at 14:20 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 52% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.4 to 1.8; shots on goal were CGY 35, WPG 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.2 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 33 of 35 (.943). Three stars: 1. Connor Hellebuyck (33 saves, .943), 2. Josh Morrissey (1 G), 3. Jacob Markstrom (22 saves, .880).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    C. Hellebuyck33 saves, .943
  2. ★★
    WPG
    J. Morrissey1 G
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    J. Markstrom22 saves, .880

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY014111110235
WPGWPG0101629325

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. WPG
    B. Dillon(1)
    D. DeMelo (9), M. Scheifele (9)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +20 pts
    0-1
    14:50
  2. CGY
    N. Zadorov(5)
    T. Toffoli (16), E. Lindholm (23)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +22 pts
    1-1
    19:00

3rd period

  1. WPG
    J. Morrissey(7)
    K. Connor (28), P. Dubois (24)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +32 pts
    1-2
    10:22
  2. CGY
    M. Backlund(8)
    A. Mangiapane (9)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +32 pts
    2-2
    11:58
  3. WPG
    S. Gagner(7)
    V. Heinola (1), D. Samberg (5)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +37 pts
    2-3
    14:20

Penalties

CGY 10 PIM·WPG 6 PIM

1st

  • 2:58CGYNazem Kadri · Boardingdrawn by David Gustafsson2 min
  • 17:10WPGPierre-Luc Dubois · Cross checkingdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min

2nd

  • 3:48CGYRasmus Andersson · Holdingdrawn by Kristian Reichel2 min
  • 8:21CGYMichael Stone · Cross checkingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 15:52WPGBrenden Dillon · Trippingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

3rd

  • 3:11WPGPierre-Luc Dubois · Roughing removing opponents helmetdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min
  • 3:11CGYMacKenzie Weegar · Holdingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min
  • 17:08CGYTyler Toffoli · Slashingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalCGY goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Sam Gagner, 3rd 14:20 — WPG 52% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Jonsson-Fjallby · On goal · xG 0.19K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.12D. Gustafsson · Missed · xG 0.12M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.12K. Stenlund · Missed · xG 0.09J. Morrissey · Goal · xG 0.08J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.08S. Gagner · Goal · xG 0.08K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.08M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.07B. Dillon · Goal · xG 0.06P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.05N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.04A. Jonsson-Fjallby · On goal · xG 0.04K. Kuhlman · Missed · xG 0.04K. Kuhlman · Missed · xG 0.04K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.04M. Barron · Missed · xG 0.04N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.03K. Stenlund · On goal · xG 0.03K. Stenlund · On goal · xG 0.03A. Jonsson-Fjallby · On goal · xG 0.03B. Dillon · On goal · xG 0.03V. Heinola · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.02K. Stenlund · On goal · xG 0.02V. Heinola · On goal · xG 0.02K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.02K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.02K. Reichel · On goal · xG 0.02D. Samberg · On goal · xG 0.02K. Stenlund · Missed · xG 0.02A. Jonsson-Fjallby · On goal · xG 0.01K. Stenlund · Missed · xG 0.01N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.01A. Jonsson-Fjallby · Missed · xG 0.01K. Kuhlman · Missed · xG 0.01D. Samberg · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG3 G · 1.8 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsWPG
2.42 G
All situations
3 G1.8
1.82 G
Even strength
3 G1.3
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY61%39%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.36 – 1.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsWPG
35
Shots on goal
25
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/2
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
6
20
Hits
17
17
Blocked shots
16
9
Giveaways
12
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. AnderssonD000+130.17132—25:48
55N. HanifinD000000.00110—22:28
8C. TanevD000-120.03130—19:47
52M. WeegarD000-210.10232—19:38
16N. ZadorovD101030.12100—19:01
11M. BacklundC101080.440105018:53
73T. ToffoliC011040.31002017:55
28E. LindholmC011020.060106517:53
91N. KadriC000010.360125817:00
88A. MangiapaneL011010.06020—16:34
29D. DubeC000010.06510015:50
20B. ColemanL000010.06000—14:50
10J. HuberdeauL000020.14000—14:27
17M. LucicL000010.10210—12:07
22T. LewisC000-130.171005011:30
63A. RuzickaC000-110.17000009:47
26M. StoneD000010.02402—09:30
67R. ZohornaL000-100.002003307:44
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(L)25223.8801.79-1.2159:18

Season series

CGY leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).