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Canadiens at Senators
NHL

Montréal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Montréal Canadiens
4
Ottawa Senators
▸6
FinalTV SNE, TVAS·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Montréal Canadiens 6-4. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 6-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Austin Watson's goal at 0:44 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Canadiens, 4.0 to 3.4; shots on goal were MTL 48, OTT 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canadiens win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Carey Price stopped 20 of 26 (.769), 3.0 goals below expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 44 of 48 (.917). Three stars: 1. Mark Kastelic (2 G), 2. Rem Pitlick (2 G), 3. Parker Kelly (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    M. Kastelic2 G
  2. ★★
    MTL
    R. Pitlick2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    P. Kelly1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL116216116448
OTTOTT1651802626

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    M. Kastelic(1)
    S. Sabourin (1), C. Tierney (12)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    2:33
  2. MTL
    R. Pitlick(14)
    J. Evans (14)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    15:57

2nd period

  1. OTT
    A. Watson(9)
    N. Holden (14), P. Kelly (5)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    0:44
  2. OTT
    P. Kelly(7)
    A. Watson (6)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    6:43
  3. OTT
    J. Norris(34)
    B. Tkachuk (33), D. Batherson (27)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    7:15
  4. OTT
    M. Kastelic(2)
    S. Sabourin (2)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +4 pts
    1-5
    7:50
  5. MTL
    C. Caufield(20)
    M. Hoffman (19), D. Savard (13)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +4 pts
    2-5
    8:43
  6. MTL
    J. Edmundson(3)
    J. Evans (15), J. Petry (18)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +7 pts
    3-5
    17:17
  7. OTT
    A. Formenton(18)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.27win prob +9 pts
    3-6
    18:05

3rd period

  1. MTL
    R. Pitlick(15)
    B. Gallagher (15), C. Dvorak (18)
    wristxG 0.35win prob +4 pts
    4-6
    8:19

Penalties

MTL 27 PIM·OTT 25 PIM

1st

  • 2:33MTLMichael Pezzetta · Fightingdrawn by Mark Kastelic5 min
  • 2:33OTTMark Kastelic · Fightingdrawn by Michael Pezzetta5 min
  • 5:30OTTScott Sabourin · Slashingdrawn by Josh Anderson2 min
  • 12:08MTLMike Hoffman · Cross checkingdrawn by Erik Brannstrom2 min
  • 16:36MTLJosh Anderson · Roughingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 16:36MTLDavid Savard · Slashingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 16:36OTTBrady Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Josh Anderson2 min
  • 16:36OTTAlex Formenton · Misconduct10 min
  • 16:36MTLAlexander Romanov · Misconduct10 min

2nd

  • 3:36MTLBrendan Gallagher · Roughingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 12:52MTLMichael Pezzetta · Trippingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min
  • 17:52OTTAdam Gaudette · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Romanov2 min

3rd

  • 0:41OTTParker Kelly · Trippingdrawn by Mike Hoffman2 min
  • 15:11OTTParker Kelly · Hookingdrawn by David Savard2 min
  • 16:48MTLJordan Harris · Hookingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalMTL goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Austin Watson, 2nd 0:44 — OTT 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.41A. Formenton · Goal · xG 0.27A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.19M. Kastelic · Goal · xG 0.19B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.16D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.14J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.12J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.12S. Sabourin · Missed · xG 0.11C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.11C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.10A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.10J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.09A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.09P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.09M. Kastelic · On goal · xG 0.08J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.08A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.08P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.08A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.08T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.08J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.07J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.06P. Kelly · Goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.05J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.04T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.04M. Kastelic · Missed · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03E. Brannstrom · Missed · xG 0.03E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Kastelic · Goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01M. Del Zotto · Missed · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT6 G · 3.4 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsOTT
4.04 G
All situations
6 G3.4
2.84 G
Even strength
5 G1.8
1.20 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL64%36%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.91 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsOTT
48
Shots on goal
26
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/4
Power play
0/5
27
Penalty minutes
25
19
Hits
27
12
Blocked shots
13
8
Giveaways
9
7
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26J. PetryD011-160.31110—26:34
14N. SuzukiC000000.290004424:11
44J. EdmundsonD101040.10320—21:17
22C. CaufieldR101-110.22000—20:52
58D. SavardD011-150.31302—20:50
68M. HoffmanC011-180.6402210019:29
32R. PitlickC202+220.6100010019:25
27A. RomanovD000010.061110—17:15
28C. DvorakC011-120.041008217:05
71J. EvansC022020.012108116:49
54J. HarrisD000000.06022—16:06
11B. GallagherR011+160.44012—15:04
17J. AndersonR000-120.12202—14:39
20C. WidemanD000-110.10120—10:16
85M. PerreaultC000-230.321006710:03
24T. PitlickC000-120.13100008:55
25R. PoehlingC000-110.030002207:51
55M. PezzettaL000-120.22307—04:25
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31C. Price(L)26206.7693.00-3.0058:54

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).