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Stars at Flames
NHL

Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
2
Calgary Flames
▸4
FinalTV KTXA, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Dallas Stars 4-2. The Flames scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Chris Tanev's goal at 13:05 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 52% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.6 to 2.2; shots on goal were DAL 23, CGY 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 33 of 36 (.917); Jacob Markstrom stopped 21 of 23 (.913). Three stars: 1. Matthew Tkachuk (1 G), 2. Chris Tanev (1 G), 3. Jason Robertson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    M. Tkachuk1 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    C. Tanev1 G
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Robertson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL0111814223
CGYCGY011113313437

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(40)PPG
    J. Gaudreau (71), R. Andersson (43)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +18 pts
    0-1
    10:06
  2. DAL
    J. Robertson(38)PPG
    J. Klingberg (39), J. Pavelski (50)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    11:53

3rd period

  1. CGY
    N. Hanifin(9)
    T. Toffoli (29), R. Andersson (44)
    wristxG 0.00win prob +23 pts
    1-2
    0:20
  2. DAL
    L. Glendening(9)
    F. Karlstrom (1)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +27 pts
    2-2
    5:29
  3. CGY
    C. Tanev(6)
    O. Kylington (21), A. Mangiapane (20)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +35 pts
    2-3
    13:05
  4. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(35)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.64win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    19:35

Penalties

DAL 10 PIM·CGY 10 PIM

1st

  • 5:30CGYElias Lindholm · Cross checkingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 6:28DALRoope Hintz · Trippingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 6:48DALRyan Suter · Trippingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 7:24CGYMikael Backlund · Trippingdrawn by Esa Lindell2 min
  • 17:51CGYserved by R. Andersson · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 6:18CGYserved by M. Tkachuk · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 8:17DALRadek Faksa · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Jacob Markstrom2 min
  • 11:46CGYErik Gudbranson · Cross checkingdrawn by Marián Studenic2 min

3rd

  • 9:53DALMiro Heiskanen · Trippingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
  • 16:28DALJamie Benn · High stickingdrawn by Tyler Toffoli2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalDAL goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Chris Tanev, 3rd 13:05 — CGY 52% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Mangiapane · Goal · xG 0.64M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.27E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.21M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.20E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.19E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.15E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.13D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.12M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.12E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.10A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.10M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.09T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.08A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.08O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.07O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.07M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.07A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.06M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.06T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.06D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.05B. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.05R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.04J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.04T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.04J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.03C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.03C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.02M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.02M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.02T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.01J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tanev · Goal · xG 0.01T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.01O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · Goal · xG 0.00N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.00D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.00B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.00T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.00M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY4 G · 3.6 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCGY
2.22 G
All situations
3 G3.6
1.81 G
Even strength
2 G1.3
0.41 G
Power play
1 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL35%65%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.10 – 2.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCGY
23
Shots on goal
37
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/5
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
10
22
Hits
22
9
Blocked shots
8
7
Giveaways
8
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000-230.02232—27:09
20R. SuterD000-110.04102—25:23
23E. LindellD000000.00000—22:44
3J. KlingbergD011-110.10100—18:55
21J. RobertsonL101-130.36000—18:00
16J. PavelskiC011-110.201007017:58
14J. BennL000-310.071024217:38
24R. HintzC000010.131124317:02
91T. SeguinC000-320.060005016:13
2J. HakanpääD000010.03510—15:35
12R. FaksaC000030.412025614:33
18M. RafflL000-100.02310—14:02
25J. KivirantaL000000.11310—12:31
40J. PetersonC000+120.09010012:25
43M. StudenicR000020.05100—11:13
11L. GlendeningC101010.201105011:10
55T. HarleyD000000.05000—10:38
51F. KarlstromC011+110.23000007:46
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)36333.9172.95-0.0559:16

Season series

CGY leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).