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Blues at Sabres
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
▸6
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV BSMWX, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Blues led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Vladimir Tarasenko's goal at 7:18 of the second period, which took the Blues' chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.0 to 3.5; shots on goal were STL 28, BUF 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 2.0 goals saved above expected; Craig Anderson stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Vladimir Tarasenko (3 G, 2 A), 2. Robert Thomas (5 A), 3. Pavel Buchnevich (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    V. Tarasenko3 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    R. Thomas5 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    P. Buchnevich1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL1939210628
BUFBUF17113017237

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. Asplund(8)
    H. Jokiharju (14)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    12:20
  2. STL
    D. Perron(25)PPG
    T. Krug (29), V. Tarasenko (40)
    slapxG 0.20win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    19:36

2nd period

  1. STL
    B. Saad(21)PPG
    R. Thomas (49), V. Tarasenko (41)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    0:17
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(11)
    O. Power (1), T. Thompson (27)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    4:20
  3. STL
    V. Tarasenko(29)
    P. Buchnevich (38), R. Thomas (50)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +18 pts
    3-2
    7:18
  4. STL
    V. Tarasenko(30)
    T. Krug (30), R. Thomas (51)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +18 pts
    4-2
    12:45

3rd period

  1. STL
    P. Buchnevich(26)
    C. Parayko (24), R. Thomas (52)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +6 pts
    5-2
    6:18
  2. STL
    V. Tarasenko(31)EN
    P. Buchnevich (39), R. Thomas (53)
    wristxG 0.45
    6-2
    17:32

Penalties

STL 4 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:19BUFRasmus Dahlin · Hookingdrawn by Vladimir Tarasenko2 min
  • 14:50STLBrandon Saad · High stickingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 18:08BUFCody Eakin · Hookingdrawn by David Perron2 min
  • 19:05BUFOwen Power · Cross checkingdrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min

3rd

  • 14:24STLIvan Barbashev · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalSTL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Vladimir Tarasenko, 2nd 7:18 — STL 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.28C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.20V. Hinostroza · Missed · xG 0.17J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.16O. Power · On goal · xG 0.14T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.14A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.14K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.14R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.13J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.13J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.13P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.12T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.11D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.11A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.11C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.10K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.10R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.10J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.09J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.09R. Asplund · Goal · xG 0.09O. Power · On goal · xG 0.08V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.07D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.07W. Butcher · Missed · xG 0.07J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.06O. Power · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.05A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.04K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.04C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.04C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.04R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.04R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.04D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hinostroza · Missed · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.02T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01W. Butcher · Missed · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01W. Butcher · On goal · xG 0.01R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 4.0 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsBUF
3.55 G
All situations
2 G4.0
2.53 G
Even strength
2 G3.7
0.62 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL35%65%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.96 – 3.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsBUF
28
Shots on goal
37
45%
Faceoffs
55%
2/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
7
Hits
4
13
Blocked shots
4
6
Giveaways
6
2
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72J. FaulkD000+250.45010—22:46
4N. LeddyD000+200.00000—22:07
6M. ScandellaD000000.19010—21:14
10B. SchennC000000.050105018:48
57D. PerronL101-120.25000—18:09
41R. BortuzzoD000+100.00020—17:15
47T. KrugD022010.01030—17:15
90R. O'ReillyC000-100.260006116:46
49I. BarbashevL000000.00202—15:54
20B. SaadL101-160.61012—15:46
18R. ThomasC055+310.090003515:28
89P. BuchnevichL123+310.11000—15:22
25J. KyrouR000050.24000—15:15
55C. ParaykoD011-110.03120—15:06
91V. TarasenkoR325+340.96110—13:42
26N. WalkerL000000.08000—12:41
22L. BrownC000000.000002911:31
65A. ToropchenkoR000020.15310—11:09
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(W)37352.9463.98+1.9859:46

Season series

STL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).