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Sabres at Blues
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
St. Louis Blues
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, BSMW·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Blues led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colton Parayko's goal at 13:57 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 52% to 88%. Expected goals were close — BUF 3.4, STL 3.4; shots on goal were BUF 38, STL 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Dustin Tokarski stopped 18 of 22 (.818), 1.1 goals below expected; Ville Husso stopped 35 of 38 (.921). Three stars: 1. Jordan Kyrou (2 G, 1 A), 2. Colton Parayko (1 G), 3. Jake Walman (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    J. Kyrou2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    C. Parayko1 G
  3. ★★★
    STL
    J. Walman1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF114111113338
STLSTL2611126523

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(12)
    R. Asplund (13), K. Okposo (17)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    1:25
  2. STL
    J. Kyrou(19)PPG
    D. Perron (16), J. Faulk (18)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    7:06
  3. STL
    J. Kyrou(20)
    J. Faulk (19), I. Barbashev (21)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    14:23

2nd period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(13)
    R. Dahlin (26), D. Cozens (15)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    3:27
  2. STL
    J. Walman(2)
    B. Saad (12), I. Barbashev (22)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +24 pts
    2-3
    19:25

3rd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(21)PPG
    P. Krebs (7), A. Tuch (15)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +28 pts
    3-3
    12:34
  2. STL
    C. Parayko(6)
    J. Kyrou (28), I. Barbashev (23)
    tip-inxG 0.17win prob +36 pts
    3-4
    13:57
  3. STL
    B. Schenn(16)EN
    R. O'Reilly (22)
    wristxG 0.56win prob +2 pts
    3-5
    19:27

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·STL 12 PIM

1st

  • 4:07STLJake Walman · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 5:57BUFRasmus Dahlin · Hookingdrawn by Justin Faulk2 min
  • 7:29STLDavid Perron · Illegal check to headdrawn by Casey Fitzgerald2 min
  • 10:33BUFTage Thompson · Hookingdrawn by Colton Parayko2 min
  • 14:53STLJustin Faulk · Interferencedrawn by John Hayden2 min

2nd

  • 0:46BUFRasmus Dahlin · Trippingdrawn by David Perron2 min
  • 8:42STLIvan Barbashev · Roughingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 8:42BUFJeff Skinner · Embellishmentdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min
  • 17:22STLJustin Faulk · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min

3rd

  • 11:43STLKlim Kostin · Hookingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalBUF goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Colton Parayko, 3rd 13:57 — STL 52% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Schenn · Goal · xG 0.56R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.25J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.19B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.18C. Parayko · Goal · xG 0.17I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.16D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.16J. Walman · Goal · xG 0.15J. Kyrou · Goal · xG 0.15R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.14P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.11R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.10D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.10J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.10P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.10J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.09C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.08I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.08R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.08I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.07I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.06B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.05R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.05J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.05J. Kyrou · Goal · xG 0.05R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.05T. Krug · Missed · xG 0.02N. Mikkola · Missed · xG 0.02J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.02J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01
STL5 G · 3.4 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsSTL
3.43 G
All situations
4 G3.4
2.52 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.91 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF59%41%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.38 – 2.84

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsSTL
38
Shots on goal
23
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/5
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
12
11
Hits
15
9
Blocked shots
13
6
Giveaways
8
16
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011-110.07014—25:00
89A. TuchR011-110.29020—22:00
45C. FitzgeraldD000-310.00110—21:57
53J. SkinnerL000060.810026020:00
72T. ThompsonC101-181.052023619:53
21K. OkposoR112010.12000—18:47
78J. BrysonD000+100.00000—18:11
23M. SamuelssonD000020.03300—17:30
37C. MittelstadtC000-210.141004417:14
24D. CozensC112030.310005615:23
19P. KrebsC011-110.08200014:52
13M. PysykD000000.00010—14:46
8R. HaggD000010.06120—14:26
71V. OlofssonL000-230.13000—14:12
74R. AsplundC011030.07010013:14
20C. EakinC000-120.030106011:08
15J. HaydenC000040.21100007:28
96A. BjorkL000000.04000—07:02
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31D. Tokarski(L)22184.8182.88-1.1259:48

Season series

STL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).