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Utah Mammoth at St. Louis Blues

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Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Utah Mammoth 5-1. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ivan Barbashev's goal at 2:17 of the second period, which took the Blues' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.6 to 2.1; shots on goal were ARI 22, STL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Ivan Prosvetov stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 1.4 goals below expected; Ville Husso stopped 21 of 22 (.955), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Vladimir Tarasenko (2 G), 2. Pavel Buchnevich (1 G, 2 A), 3. Robert Thomas (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    V. Tarasenko2 G
  2. ★★
    STL
    P. Buchnevich1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    R. Thomas2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ARIARI0701015122
STLSTL01041415529

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. STL
    wristxG 0.18win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    2:17
  2. STL
    snapxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    3:34
  3. STL
    B. Schenn(20)PPG
    D. Perron (26), N. Leddy (18)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    6:33
  4. STL
    snapxG 0.19win prob +4 pts
    0-4
    14:39

3rd period

  1. ARI
    wristxG 0.33win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    3:09
  2. STL
    wristxG 0.10
    1-5
    13:09

Penalties

ARI 4 PIM·STL 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:01ARIKyle Capobianco · Holdingdrawn by David Perron2 min
  • 19:00STLBrayden Schenn · Cross checkingdrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min

2nd

  • 5:47ARIBarrett Hayton · Hookingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 14:12STLRobert Thomas · Hookingdrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalARI goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Ivan Barbashev, 2nd 2:17 — STL 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.20J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.20P. Buchnevich · Goal · xG 0.19I. Barbashev · Goal · xG 0.19R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.17B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.16C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.15R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.14B. Schenn · Goal · xG 0.14J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.13D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.13A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.11J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.11R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.11A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.11B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.10V. Tarasenko · Goal · xG 0.10N. Walker · On goal · xG 0.10B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.10V. Tarasenko · Goal · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.08P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.07B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.06P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.06P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.06B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.05M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.04A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.04R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.04B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.04A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.04J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.04V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.04C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.03M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.03J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.03M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.03N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.03R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.01A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.00
STL5 G · 3.6 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ARIvsSTL
2.11 G
All situations
5 G3.6
2.01 G
Even strength
3 G3.1
0.10 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ARI25%75%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.04 – 3.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ARIvsSTL
22
Shots on goal
29
41%
Faceoffs
59%
0/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
6
Hits
22
14
Blocked shots
9
5
Giveaways
7
12
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
86A. StralmanD000-110.01100—21:10
14S. GostisbehereD000-210.07010—20:15
8N. SchmaltzC101-220.4400010019:54
54C. DineenD011+120.07020—19:39
75K. CapobiancoD000-110.10002—19:16
61D. MayoD000-120.11110—18:28
92V. KolyachonokD000-100.04030—18:25
12N. RitchieL011010.12000—16:59
72T. BoydC000000.080104516:24
29B. HaytonC000-240.160124115:39
21L. ErikssonL000010.00010—15:32
81P. KesselR000-210.0300010015:18
17A. GalchenyukC000-110.151006715:04
63M. MaccelliL000010.11000—13:38
73J. JenikC000-100.01110013:38
53M. CarconeL000-220.43110—13:07
83J. BeagleC000010.020102113:04
24H. FaschingR000010.10110—11:44
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50I. Prosvetov(L)29245.8283.58-1.4260:00

Season series

STL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).