Stars at Sharks 5-4 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Dallas Stars

▸5

San Jose Sharks

FinalTV BSSW, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the San Jose Sharks 5-4. The Sharks scored first; the Stars answered. The Stars led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roope Hintz's goal at 9:53 of the first period, which took the Stars' chances from 59% to 75%. Expected goals were close — DAL 2.2, SJS 2.2; shots on goal were DAL 29, SJS 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sharks win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.8 goals below expected; James Reimer stopped 14 of 15 (.933). Three stars: 1. Tyler Seguin (3 A), 2. Joe Pavelski (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brent Burns (1 G).

Three stars

★
T. Seguin3 A
★★
J. Pavelski1 G, 1 A
★★★
B. Burns1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	414	010	15	529
SJS	110	112	26	428

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

N. Bonino(9)
N. Gregor (11), E. Karlsson (22)
wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
0-1
1:25
V. Namestnikov(14)
T. Seguin (20)
wristxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
1-1
1:50
J. Hakanpää(3)
T. Seguin (21), V. Namestnikov (13)
slapxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
2-1
8:11
R. Hintz(30)
J. Klingberg (35), J. Pavelski (43)
deflectedxG 0.25win prob +16 pts
3-1
9:53
J. Robertson(32)
D. Gurianov (19), T. Seguin (22)
slapxG 0.04win prob +11 pts
4-1
19:59

2nd period

B. Burns(9)
S. Chmelevski (2), J. Megna (2)
deflectedxG 0.05win prob +10 pts
4-2
7:53

3rd period

J. Pavelski(25)
R. Hintz (28), J. Robertson (31)
snapxG 0.15win prob +6 pts
5-2
7:44
J. Leonard(1)
E. Karlsson (23), M. Ferraro (10)
wristxG 0.12win prob +2 pts
5-3
15:21
L. Couture(22)
S. Chmelevski (3), N. Gregor (12)
backhandxG 0.24win prob +6 pts
5-4
18:32

Penalties

2 PIM·

6 PIM

2nd

4:08Brent Burns · Slashingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min

3rd

2:19Andrej Sekera · Slashingdrawn by Timo Meier2 min
9:28Tomas Hertl · High sticking double minordrawn by Luke Glendening4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: SJS

Biggest swing: Roope Hintz, 1st 9:53 — DAL 59% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

4 G · 2.2 xG · 43 att

←

attacks

attacks →

5 G · 2.2 xG · 43 att SJS

4 G · 2.2 xG · 43 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.25 G
All situations: 4 G2.2; 1.75 G
Even strength: 4 G1.8; 0.40 G
Power play: 0 G0.4; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

50%50%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.17 – 2.18

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 28; 53%
Faceoffs: 47%; 0/3
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 6; 19
Hits: 27; 12
Blocked shots: 14; 10
Giveaways: 9; 6
Takeaways: 12

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4M. HeiskanenD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.10	0	4	0	—	27:44
20R. SuterD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	1	1	0	—	26:17
3J. KlingbergD	0	1	1	0	2	0.16	1	1	0	—	20:02
91T. SeguinC	0	3	3	+1	2	0.14	1	0	0	50	18:00
16J. PavelskiC	1	1	2	0	4	0.46	0	2	0	58	17:51
24R. HintzC	1	1	2	+2	4	0.51	2	0	0	100	16:26
12R. FaksaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	1	0	0	50	16:22
11L. GlendeningC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	1	0	0	50	16:16
18M. RafflL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.02	2	1	0	—	16:00
2J. HakanpääD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.07	6	2	0	—	15:42
55T. HarleyD	0	0	0	0	3	0.11	3	0	0	—	15:21
21J. RobertsonL	1	1	2	+1	1	0.04	1	0	0	—	15:04
47A. RadulovR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.19	0	0	0	—	13:08
92V. NamestnikovC	1	1	2	+2	1	0.12	0	0	0	0	13:04
5A. SekeraD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	0	0	2	—	12:55
14J. BennL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	1	0	50	12:53
34D. GurianovR	0	1	1	+3	1	0.02	0	0	0	—	12:51
40J. PetersonC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.11	0	0	0	0	12:06

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
41S. Wedgewood(W)	28	24	4	.857	2.21	-1.79	59:58

Season series

DAL leads 2-1

Dec 111@2Final
Apr 25@4this game
Apr 161@2Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score