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Maple Leafs at Sabres
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV TNT, SN·Tim Hortons Field

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Sabres answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Vinnie Hinostroza's goal at 5:16 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.7 to 3.3; shots on goal were TOR 36, BUF 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 33 of 37 (.892), 1.1 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Peyton Krebs (2 G), 2. Vinnie Hinostroza (2 G, 1 A), 3. Ondrej Kase (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    P. Krebs2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    V. Hinostroza2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    O. Kase1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0921809236
BUFBUF01429315538

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    O. Kase(12)
    W. Nylander (32), J. Tavares (36)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    0:40
  2. BUF
    P. Krebs(5)
    V. Hinostroza (11), R. Hagg (7)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    1:22
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(45)
    A. Kerfoot (33), T. Brodie (16)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    2:57
  4. BUF
    V. Hinostroza(9)
    T. Thompson (20), M. Samuelsson (3)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    10:53

3rd period

  1. BUF
    V. Hinostroza(10)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.03win prob +27 pts
    2-3
    5:16
  2. BUF
    P. Krebs(6)
    D. Cozens (19), K. Okposo (20)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +11 pts
    2-4
    13:49
  3. BUF
    T. Thompson(24)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.41win prob +2 pts
    2-5
    17:35

Penalties

TOR 32 PIM·BUF 30 PIM

1st

  • 18:04TORPierre Engvall · Roughingdrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza2 min
  • 18:04BUFVinnie Hinostroza · Roughingdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min
  • 18:04BUFHenri Jokiharju · Roughingdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min

2nd

  • 5:53BUFJohn Hayden · Hookingdrawn by Wayne Simmonds2 min
  • 18:35TORIlya Lyubushkin · Hookingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

3rd

  • 1:38TORTimothy Liljegren · Trippingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
  • 8:49TORTJ Brodie · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Asplund2 min
  • 14:55TORAuston Matthews · Cross checkingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 14:55BUFRasmus Dahlin · Cross checkingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 16:41BUFKyle Okposo · Trippingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 18:17TORMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 18:17TORMichael Bunting · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:17BUFTage Thompson · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:17BUFDylan Cozens · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:17TORIlya Mikheyev · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTOR goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Vinnie Hinostroza, 3rd 5:16 — BUF 52% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.41R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.24J. Hayden · Missed · xG 0.22A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.20R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.17T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.15J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.14C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.13J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.12A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.12P. Krebs · Goal · xG 0.12A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.12P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.11D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.11V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.11J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.10A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.09V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.06M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hinostroza · Goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.04K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hinostroza · Goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hayden · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · Goal · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.00H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.00H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.00J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 3.3 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsBUF
3.72 G
All situations
4 G3.3
2.62 G
Even strength
4 G2.4
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.60 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR62%38%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.67 – 2.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsBUF
36
Shots on goal
38
62%
Faceoffs
38%
0/3
Power play
0/4
32
Penalty minutes
30
30
Hits
30
7
Blocked shots
17
15
Giveaways
10
10
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000-360.26000—25:29
3J. HollD000-110.04110—23:09
78T. BrodieD011000.00322—22:13
16M. MarnerR000-350.79200—20:51
34A. MatthewsC101-250.803025720:26
88W. NylanderR011-130.32100—18:25
91J. TavaresC011-230.183007317:54
38R. SandinD000-100.01100—17:08
58M. BuntingL000-200.151012—16:02
46I. LyubushkinD000010.01302—15:47
25O. KaseR101020.26400—15:12
64D. KampfC000-120.242003313:15
65I. MikheyevR000-140.341010—12:52
15A. KerfootC011+110.0600010012:08
19J. SpezzaC000-110.101107510:50
47P. EngvallL000010.06002—10:50
37T. LiljegrenD000000.02222—10:25
24W. SimmondsR000+110.10210—08:52
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Mrazek(L)37334.8922.93-1.0758:29

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).