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Maple Leafs at Sabres
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
4
FinalTV MSG-B, SN·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-4. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Morgan Rielly's goal at 19:48 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 99%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.2 to 1.7; shots on goal were TOR 26, BUF 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.8 goals below expected; Aaron Dell stopped 21 of 26 (.808), 3.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jeff Skinner (2 G, 1 A), 2. Tage Thompson (1 G, 1 A), 3. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Skinner2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR1528213526
BUFBUF1131727427

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    D. Kampf(2)
    A. Kerfoot (7), P. Engvall (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:43
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(4)
    C. Miller (7), K. Okposo (4)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    14:42

2nd period

  1. TOR
    O. Kase(4)
    J. Tavares (7), A. Matthews (6)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    7:18
  2. TOR
    M. Bunting(4)
    J. Muzzin (4), J. Spezza (3)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    8:28
  3. BUF
    T. Thompson(5)
    J. Skinner (4)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    17:33

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(8)PPG
    M. Rielly (9), M. Marner (11)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    4-2
    9:22
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(5)
    T. Thompson (4)
    tip-inxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    4-3
    10:47
  3. BUF
    R. Dahlin(2)
    A. Ruotsalainen (2), K. Okposo (5)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +34 pts
    4-4
    11:46
  4. TOR
    M. Rielly(1)
    A. Kerfoot (8)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    19:48

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 9:47TORTJ Brodie · Hookingdrawn by Anders Bjork2 min
  • 15:27TORPierre Engvall · Hookingdrawn by Robert Hagg2 min

3rd

  • 7:26BUFArttu Ruotsalainen · Hookingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTOR goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Morgan Rielly, 3rd 19:48 — TOR 48% → 99%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.17D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.16T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.15T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.15T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.12R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.11K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.11C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.09J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.09J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.07J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.07R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.06K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hinostroza · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.04D. Caggiula · Missed · xG 0.04D. Caggiula · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03D. Caggiula · Missed · xG 0.03C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.03K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.02R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hagg · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Eakin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Caggiula · Missed · xG 0.01
BUF4 G · 2.2 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsBUF
1.75 G
All situations
4 G2.2
1.54 G
Even strength
4 G2.0
0.11 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR40%60%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.65 – 2.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsBUF
26
Shots on goal
27
64%
Faceoffs
36%
1/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
7
Hits
7
12
Blocked shots
9
10
Giveaways
3
1
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD112+340.10120—24:35
8J. MuzzinD011-100.02100—22:41
78T. BrodieD000+300.00042—21:30
3J. HollD000-100.00130—20:39
34A. MatthewsC011+130.300005619:19
16M. MarnerR011-120.21000—18:19
25O. KaseR101020.13010—17:52
91J. TavaresC112020.111005617:11
88W. NylanderR000-220.14000—16:41
20N. RitchieL000010.18200—15:40
64D. KampfC101+110.130007815:33
37T. LiljegrenD000-220.06010—15:04
15A. KerfootC022+230.14000014:27
23T. DermottD000-200.00000—13:51
47P. EngvallL011+210.07002—13:44
58M. BuntingL101-110.03000—10:03
94K. SemyonovC000-100.00100009:52
19J. SpezzaC011-120.030107508:59
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)27234.8522.18-1.8260:00

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).