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Senators at Islanders
NHL

Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
1
New York Islanders
▸4
FinalTV MSG+, TSN5·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Ottawa Senators 4-1. The Senators scored first; the Islanders answered. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Oliver Wahlstrom's goal at 8:42 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.8 to 2.2; shots on goal were OTT 27, NYI 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.2 goals below expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Scott Mayfield (2 A), 2. Adam Pelech (1 G), 3. Mathew Barzal (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    S. Mayfield2 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    A. Pelech1 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    M. Barzal1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT1808011127
NYINYI1142917430

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    N. Holden(2)
    T. Ennis (13), B. Tkachuk (18)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:56
  2. NYI
    A. Beauvillier(7)PPG
    Z. Parise (10), B. Nelson (8)
    wristxG 0.41win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    18:07

2nd period

  1. NYI
    O. Wahlstrom(10)
    Z. Chara (4), N. Dobson (11)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    8:42
  2. NYI
    M. Barzal(10)
    S. Mayfield (9)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    15:50

3rd period

  1. NYI
    A. Pelech(2)
    S. Mayfield (10), J. Pageau (7)
    backhandxG 0.23win prob +4 pts
    1-4
    7:44

Penalties

OTT 8 PIM·NYI 6 PIM

1st

  • 2:40NYIOliver Wahlstrom · Roughingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 2:40OTTTim Stützle · Slashingdrawn by Oliver Wahlstrom2 min
  • 8:52OTTJoshua Brown · Holdingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 16:09OTTClark Bishop · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Pulock2 min

2nd

  • 17:22NYIKyle Palmieri · Slashingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

3rd

  • 5:53OTTClark Bishop · Trippingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min
  • 5:53NYIMatt Martin · Trippingdrawn by Clark Bishop2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalOTT goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Oliver Wahlstrom, 2nd 8:42 — NYI 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Beauvillier · Goal · xG 0.41A. Pelech · Goal · xG 0.23B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.18M. Barzal · Goal · xG 0.14A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.14B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.12M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.11O. Wahlstrom · Missed · xG 0.11B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.10M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.10A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.09S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.09B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.08M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.08C. Clutterbuck · Missed · xG 0.08C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.07K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.06O. Wahlstrom · Goal · xG 0.06N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.05O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.05N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.04K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.03C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.03J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.03R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.03A. Greene · Missed · xG 0.03R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.02A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Chara · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Chara · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI4 G · 2.8 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsNYI
2.21 G
All situations
4 G2.8
2.21 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT39%61%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.20 – 2.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsNYI
27
Shots on goal
30
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/1
Power play
1/2
8
Penalty minutes
6
35
Hits
25
10
Blocked shots
12
9
Giveaways
9
5
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000-210.00220—27:26
26E. BrannstromD000-230.19100—23:47
2A. ZubD000020.03310—20:46
5N. HoldenD101030.29110—20:41
21N. PaulL000-120.153103820:23
7B. TkachukL011020.114004319:16
18T. StützleC000020.28112018:26
13Z. SanfordL000-110.07400—18:13
10A. FormentonL000020.54000—17:52
63T. EnnisR011+110.05200—14:32
16A. WatsonL000-110.02010—14:30
3J. BrownD000020.05212—13:52
71C. TierneyC000000.001006712:04
17A. GaudetteR000040.19300—11:03
98V. MeteD000000.03010—11:03
47M. KastelicC000-100.026008010:09
75E. SokolovL000-100.00210—09:40
14C. BishopC000-110.19004008:19
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(L)30264.8672.77-1.2360:00

Season series

NYI leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).