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Islanders at Senators
NHL

New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸5
Ottawa Senators
3
FinalTV MSG+, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Ottawa Senators 5-3. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Oliver Wahlstrom's goal at 14:06 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 47% to 68%. Expected goals were close — NYI 2.8, OTT 2.9; shots on goal were NYI 27, OTT 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 30 of 33 (.909); Filip Gustavsson stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 2.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anders Lee (2 G), 2. Oliver Wahlstrom (1 G, 1 A), 3. Alex Formenton (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    A. Lee2 G
  2. ★★
    NYI
    O. Wahlstrom1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    A. Formenton1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI0339215527
OTTOTT09113211333

Scoring

8 goals

2nd period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(5)
    J. Bailey (7), S. Mayfield (2)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    3:00
  2. OTT
    J. Norris(11)PPG
    D. Batherson (13), T. Chabot (12)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +10 pts
    1-1
    9:44
  3. NYI
    O. Wahlstrom(8)
    K. Bellows (2), A. Czarnik (1)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +21 pts
    2-1
    14:06
  4. NYI
    A. Lee(6)
    M. Barzal (9), A. Pelech (4)
    tip-inxG 0.19win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    14:33

3rd period

  1. NYI
    K. Bellows(1)
    A. Czarnik (2), O. Wahlstrom (1)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +6 pts
    4-1
    6:26
  2. OTT
    N. Holden(1)
    T. Stützle (9), A. Formenton (2)
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +5 pts
    4-2
    8:11
  3. NYI
    J. Pageau(3)
    S. Mayfield (3)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +2 pts
    5-2
    12:26
  4. OTT
    A. Formenton(5)SHG
    C. Brown (9)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +1 pts
    5-3
    15:54

Penalties

NYI 14 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 5:08NYIZdeno Chara · Hookingdrawn by Zachary Sanford2 min
  • 14:03NYIAdam Pelech · Hookingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min

2nd

  • 4:34OTTDillon Heatherington · Hookingdrawn by Ross Johnston2 min
  • 8:12NYIScott Mayfield · High sticking double minordrawn by Josh Norris4 min
  • 18:36OTTTim Stützle · Roughingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min
  • 18:36NYINoah Dobson · Roughingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 18:36NYINoah Dobson · Roughingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

3rd

  • 12:21NYICal Clutterbuck · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 12:21OTTBrady Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min
  • 14:31OTTArtem Zub · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalNYI goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Oliver Wahlstrom, 2nd 14:06 — NYI 47% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.22N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.19B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.17J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.14J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.14N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.11C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.11T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.11T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.09D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.08J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.08C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.08A. Formenton · Goal · xG 0.08D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.07J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.06T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.05T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.05N. Holden · Goal · xG 0.05D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.05T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.04L. Thomson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.03J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.03L. Thomson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.03D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.03N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.02L. Thomson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.02D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01N. Holden · Missed · xG 0.01N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.01A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 2.9 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsOTT
2.85 G
All situations
3 G2.9
1.75 G
Even strength
1 G1.4
0.60 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI41%59%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 2.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsOTT
27
Shots on goal
33
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/2
Power play
1/5
14
Penalty minutes
8
26
Hits
22
15
Blocked shots
8
11
Giveaways
17
3
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3A. PelechD011+210.01022—21:42
44J. PageauC101-120.365105920:35
8N. DobsonD000030.12204—20:26
33Z. CharaD000+100.02512—19:14
24S. MayfieldD022+320.07124—19:12
4A. GreeneD000+220.03030—18:47
12J. BaileyR011+100.001103318:25
13M. BarzalC011+220.020006318:18
25S. AhoD000-110.04020—17:08
21K. PalmieriC000-130.53110017:05
18A. BeauvillierR000010.14000—16:03
27A. LeeL202+220.7921010015:43
15C. ClutterbuckR000010.04312—14:23
11Z. PariseL000-120.190005013:24
26O. WahlstromR112+130.36200—12:38
10A. CzarnikC022+210.030006009:08
32R. JohnstonL000000.00200—08:39
20K. BellowsL112+210.08200—08:00
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(W)33303.9092.90-0.1059:38

Season series

NYI leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).