Avalanche at Stars 4-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Colorado Avalanche

▸4

Dallas Stars

FinalTV BSSW+, ALT·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 4-0. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nazem Kadri's goal at 11:51 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 60% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.1 to 1.7; shots on goal were COL 30, DAL 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Darcy Kuemper stopped 23 of 23 (1.000), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Braden Holtby stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Cale Makar (2 A), 2. Darcy Kuemper (23 saves, 1.000), 3. Gabriel Landeskog (2 G).

Three stars

★
C. Makar2 A
★★
D. Kuemper23 saves, 1.000
★★★
G. Landeskog2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	213	07	210	430
DAL	05	014	04	023

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

G. Landeskog(21)
N. MacKinnon (35), C. Makar (27)
tip-inxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
1-0
5:31
N. Kadri(20)
C. Makar (28)
tip-inxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
2-0
11:51

3rd period

N. Aube-Kubel(7)
T. Jost (8), V. Nichushkin (12)
wristxG 0.03win prob +3 pts
3-0
13:50
G. Landeskog(22)EN
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.85
4-0
18:10

Penalties

6 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

5:45Gabriel Landeskog · Trippingdrawn by Michael Raffl2 min
8:22Cale Makar · Trippingdrawn by Michael Raffl2 min
14:35Nathan MacKinnon · High stickingdrawn by Esa Lindell2 min
16:00Jamie Benn · Hookingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DAL

Biggest swing: Nazem Kadri, 1st 11:51 — COL 60% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.7 xG · 36 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 3.1 xG · 45 att DAL

0 G · 1.7 xG · 36 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.13 G
All situations: 0 G1.7; 1.73 G
Even strength: 0 G1.2; 0.40 G
Power play: 0 G0.5; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

59%41%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.21 – 1.74

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 23; 41%
Faceoffs: 59%; 0/1
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 2; 14
Hits: 15; 15
Blocked shots: 16; 10
Giveaways: 18; 4
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Colorado Avalanche skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8C. MakarD	0	2	2	+3	2	0.03	1	1	2	—	24:58
49S. GirardD	0	0	0	+3	1	0.10	0	3	0	—	23:18
7D. ToewsD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	3	0	—	22:45
96M. RantanenR	0	0	0	+3	5	0.71	0	1	0	—	18:20
6E. JohnsonD	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	0	1	0	—	17:52
92G. LandeskogL	2	0	2	+2	3	1.11	1	1	2	40	17:48
29N. MacKinnonC	0	1	1	+2	3	0.16	0	0	2	50	17:45
3J. JohnsonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	0	0	0	—	17:43
91N. KadriC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.20	0	1	0	40	16:45
13V. NichushkinR	0	1	1	+2	3	0.18	3	0	0	—	16:07
95A. BurakovskyL	0	0	0	0	2	0.16	1	0	0	—	15:22
25L. O'ConnorR	0	0	0	0	0	0.09	0	2	0	—	14:33
17T. JostC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	1	0	40	13:07
37J. CompherL	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	0	0	0	50	12:44
18A. NewhookC	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	0	12:30
56K. MacDermidL	0	0	0	0	3	0.08	2	1	0	—	12:14
43D. HelmC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	100	10:53
16N. Aube-KubelR	1	0	1	+1	1	0.06	3	0	0	50	09:16

Colorado Avalanche goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35D. Kuemper(W)	23	23	0	1.000	1.75	+1.75	60:00

Season series

DAL leads 2-1

Nov 261@3Final
Feb 134@0this game
Feb 154@1Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

1st period

3rd period

2nd

Box score