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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
1
Dallas Stars
▸3
FinalTV BSSW, ALT2·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Colorado Avalanche 3-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joe Pavelski's goal at 1:31 of the first period, which took the Stars' chances from 65% to 79%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.7, DAL 2.6; shots on goal were COL 37, DAL 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Darcy Kuemper stopped 19 of 22 (.864); Jake Oettinger stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Joe Pavelski (2 G), 2. Jake Oettinger (32 saves, .970), 3. Jason Robertson (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Pavelski2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger32 saves, .970
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Robertson1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL04013120137
DALDAL2121901322

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    J. Pavelski(5)
    J. Robertson (7), J. Klingberg (7)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    1:12
  2. DAL
    J. Pavelski(6)
    R. Hintz (5)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    1:31

2nd period

  1. DAL
    D. Gurianov(4)PPG
    M. Heiskanen (12), R. Suter (8)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    14:26

3rd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(9)
    G. Landeskog (12), D. Toews (5)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +1 pts
    1-3
    16:39

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 11:48DALTyler Seguin · Holdingdrawn by Alex Newhook2 min
  • 14:52DALJamie Benn · Holdingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min

2nd

  • 4:25COLserved by K. Sherwood · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 8:46COLMikko Rantanen · Cross checkingdrawn by Tyler Seguin2 min
  • 12:38COLNicolas Aube-Kubel · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Jake Oettinger2 min

3rd

  • 11:03DALRoope Hintz · Trippingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Joe Pavelski, 1st 1:31 — DAL 65% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.19J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.13D. Gurianov · Goal · xG 0.13J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.13J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.13M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.13T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.12M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.11R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.10R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.10J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.09R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.09T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.08J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.07R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.07J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.07J. Kiviranta · Missed · xG 0.07R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.07J. Peterson · Missed · xG 0.07J. Peterson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Peterson · Missed · xG 0.06R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.06A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.06J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.05E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.04A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.04D. Gurianov · Missed · xG 0.04R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.03J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hanley · Missed · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.01J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.01A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Peterson · On goal · xG 0.00M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL3 G · 2.6 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
2.71 G
All situations
3 G2.6
2.31 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL52%48%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.69 – 2.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
37
Shots on goal
22
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
14
Hits
15
11
Blocked shots
9
6
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD101+140.15230—27:52
7D. ToewsD011+130.03110—26:03
96M. RantanenR000+120.222123623:29
92G. LandeskogL011+140.361006723:12
91N. KadriC000040.321003221:53
49S. GirardD000-110.03000—21:42
13V. NichushkinR000010.10100—19:29
95A. BurakovskyL000-110.18010—16:23
6E. JohnsonD000-140.17320—15:17
17T. JostC000-120.141103315:08
25L. O'ConnorR000010.00000—14:56
28R. MurrayD000-110.17000—13:16
18A. NewhookC000-130.520008313:06
3J. JohnsonD000-110.04020—11:59
12J. MegnaC000010.010004009:41
43D. HelmC000000.03200009:33
16N. Aube-KubelR000-120.14002—08:02
44K. SherwoodL000020.13000—07:27
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Kuemper(L)22193.8642.58-0.4255:37

Season series

DAL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).