Skip to content
Sabres at Islanders
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
New York Islanders
▸4
FinalTV MSG+, MSG-B·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kieffer Bellows's goal at 6:45 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.9 to 2.5; shots on goal were BUF 37, NYI 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Malcolm Subban stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.5 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 36 of 37 (.973), 1.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mathew Barzal (1 G, 2 A), 2. Noah Dobson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Kieffer Bellows (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    M. Barzal1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    N. Dobson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    K. Bellows1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF11409014137
NYINYI19212111432

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    M. Barzal(6)
    J. Bailey (10), N. Dobson (8)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    12:35
  2. BUF
    K. Okposo(7)PPG
    B. Murray (3), V. Olofsson (14)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    19:00

2nd period

  1. NYI
    K. Bellows(3)
    A. Greene (4)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    6:45
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(9)PPG
    K. Bellows (4), M. Barzal (13)
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    1-3
    11:25

3rd period

  1. NYI
    N. Dobson(4)
    J. Bailey (11), M. Barzal (14)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +3 pts
    1-4
    11:43

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·NYI 4 PIM

1st

  • 1:13BUFserved by A. Ruotsalainen · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 18:10NYIMatt Martin · Trippingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

2nd

  • 10:39BUFAnders Bjork · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Semyon Varlamov2 min

3rd

  • 18:08NYICasey Cizikas · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalBUF goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Kieffer Bellows, 2nd 6:45 — NYI 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.17M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.14M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.13A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.12M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.12K. Bellows · Goal · xG 0.12M. Barzal · Goal · xG 0.12J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.10M. Dal Colle · On goal · xG 0.10A. Lee · Goal · xG 0.10M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.09J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.09C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Chara · On goal · xG 0.08N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Parise · Missed · xG 0.07A. Czarnik · On goal · xG 0.07K. Bellows · Missed · xG 0.07C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.06M. Dal Colle · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.05K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.05K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.05M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.05N. Dobson · Goal · xG 0.04A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.04M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.03S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Chara · On goal · xG 0.03J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.03A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.03A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.01A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.01
NYI4 G · 2.5 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNYI
2.91 G
All situations
4 G2.5
1.90 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
1.01 G
Power play
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF56%44%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.85 – 2.52

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNYI
37
Shots on goal
32
34%
Faceoffs
66%
1/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
12
Hits
24
10
Blocked shots
11
15
Giveaways
11
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000-110.04110—27:04
10H. JokiharjuD000-110.04100—24:40
4W. ButcherD000-110.15000—20:32
13M. PysykD000-110.26320—19:26
19P. KrebsC000-110.180001117:54
20C. EakinC000040.071004517:38
21K. OkposoR101-170.601005017:17
71V. OlofssonL011-140.26000—17:15
89A. TuchR000-230.11010—17:04
72T. ThompsonC000-210.130003916:12
77J. PeterkaR000-120.24010—16:03
15J. HaydenC000060.45300014:57
74R. AsplundC000000.00000014:40
6E. ProwD000-110.02010—13:10
45C. FitzgeraldD000-120.06110—12:26
57B. MurrayL011020.29010—12:07
96A. BjorkL000-100.00012—11:03
25A. RuotsalainenC000000.001102509:42
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
47M. Subban(L)32284.8752.52-1.4858:04

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).