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Islanders at Sabres
NHL

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸6
FinalTV MSG+ 2, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the New York Islanders 6-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Olofsson's goal at 17:05 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.7 to 2.6; shots on goal were NYI 33, BUF 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 35 of 39 (.897), 1.4 goals below expected; Dustin Tokarski stopped 30 of 33 (.909). Three stars: 1. Victor Olofsson (2 G), 2. Alex Tuch (1 G, 1 A), 3. Tage Thompson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    V. Olofsson2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI110112111333
BUFBUF112217312641

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(10)
    C. Fitzgerald (3), C. Eakin (7)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    10:53
  2. NYI
    K. Palmieri(2)
    A. Beauvillier (10), S. Aho (3)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    12:06

2nd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(16)SHG
    D. Cozens (11)
    wristxG 0.37win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    1:36
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(13)
    Z. Chara (6), M. Barzal (20)
    wristxG 0.43win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    7:11
  3. BUF
    A. Tuch(7)PPG
    P. Krebs (4), R. Dahlin (23)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
    2-3
    19:59

3rd period

  1. NYI
    K. Palmieri(3)
    A. Lee (6), N. Dobson (13)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +30 pts
    3-3
    9:56
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(6)
    P. Krebs (5), D. Cozens (12)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +42 pts
    3-4
    17:05
  3. BUF
    H. Jokiharju(3)EN
    A. Tuch (12)
    wristxG 0.50win prob +5 pts
    3-5
    18:55
  4. BUF
    V. Olofsson(7)EN
    D. Cozens (13)
    wristxG 0.53
    3-6
    19:34

Penalties

NYI 4 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

2nd

  • 0:27BUFMark Jankowski · Interferencedrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 9:03BUFDylan Cozens · Cross checkingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
  • 16:01NYIZach Parise · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 19:00NYIZdeno Chara · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Asplund2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalNYI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Victor Olofsson, 3rd 17:05 — BUF 52% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.53H. Jokiharju · Goal · xG 0.50T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.37R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.14A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.12D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.11C. Eakin · Missed · xG 0.10J. Hayden · On goal · xG 0.10R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.09R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.09C. Eakin · Missed · xG 0.09T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.08V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.08T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.07D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.07K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.07D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.07P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.07J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.06R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.06K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.05V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Bjork · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.02K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.02K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.01C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.00R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF6 G · 3.7 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsBUF
2.63 G
All situations
4 G3.7
2.33 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI49%51%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.52 – 2.60

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsBUF
33
Shots on goal
41
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
9
13
Blocked shots
8
6
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6R. PulockD000-110.00220—21:38
3A. PelechD000+220.04100—20:08
8N. DobsonD011-130.11020—19:51
24S. MayfieldD000000.02020—18:57
18A. BeauvillierR011-220.07000—18:10
12J. BaileyR000-130.250005018:01
33Z. CharaD011-110.03312—17:36
25S. AhoD011-100.00030—16:51
13M. BarzalC011030.171005016:39
29B. NelsonC000-120.260106716:36
53C. CizikasC000000.000006816:06
15C. ClutterbuckR000040.14300—15:04
27A. LeeL112+140.85010—14:51
44J. PageauC000-220.171004414:42
17M. MartinL000000.00100—13:46
21K. PalmieriC202030.19200013:35
26O. WahlstromR000-210.01100—13:07
11Z. PariseL000-320.2321210013:00
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(L)39354.8972.65-1.3558:23

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).