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Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸7
FinalTV BSDET+, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Detroit Red Wings 7-3. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 6-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 3:59 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 69% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 5.4 to 2.8; shots on goal were DET 40, COL 47. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 36 of 39 (.923), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Darcy Kuemper stopped 37 of 40 (.925). Three stars: 1. Andre Burakovsky (2 G), 2. Devon Toews (3 A), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    A. Burakovsky2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    D. Toews3 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET114211015340
COLCOL314315118747

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    J. Compher(6)
    D. Toews (14), C. Makar (13)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    5:01
  2. COL
    A. Burakovsky(8)
    A. Newhook (4), J. Johnson (5)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    7:10
  3. COL
    D. Helm(4)
    N. Aube-Kubel (5)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    10:49
  4. DET
    V. Namestnikov(9)
    P. Suter (9), M. Seider (16)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +9 pts
    1-3
    19:07

2nd period

  1. DET
    J. Veleno(3)
    S. Gagner (8), F. Hronek (12)
    backhandxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    3:21
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(3)
    G. Landeskog (18), D. Toews (15)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    3:59
  3. COL
    A. Burakovsky(9)
    M. Rantanen (12)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +9 pts
    2-5
    4:22
  4. COL
    S. Girard(3)
    T. Jost (5), E. Johnson (8)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +4 pts
    2-6
    7:33
  5. DET
    F. Hronek(3)PPG
    F. Zadina (6), N. Leddy (8)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +3 pts
    3-6
    13:34

3rd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(12)EN
    D. Toews (16)
    wristxG 0.48
    3-7
    15:30

Penalties

DET 6 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 7:59DETMoritz Seider · Cross checkingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 12:12COLGabriel Landeskog · Hookingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min

2nd

  • 11:45COLNicolas Aube-Kubel · Slashingdrawn by Filip Hronek2 min
  • 16:53COLErik Johnson · Cross checkingdrawn by Pius Suter2 min

3rd

  • 1:34DETDanny DeKeyser · Trippingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min
  • 3:20DETSam Gagner · High stickingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min
  • 13:11COLCale Makar · Cross checkingdrawn by Filip Hronek2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDET goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 2nd 3:59 — COL 69% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.48D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.38D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.36N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.21A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.20N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.20K. MacDermid · On goal · xG 0.18N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.17N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.17A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.16V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.16V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.15N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.14G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.13D. Helm · Goal · xG 0.12A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.12M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.11V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.11L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.11V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.10A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.09S. Girard · Goal · xG 0.09A. Burakovsky · Goal · xG 0.09V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.08D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.08C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.08A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.07V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.07G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.05S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.05N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.05V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.04D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.04J. Compher · Goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.04N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03J. MacDonald · Missed · xG 0.02S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.02E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02J. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02J. MacDonald · Missed · xG 0.02K. MacDermid · On goal · xG 0.02A. Burakovsky · Goal · xG 0.02L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.01A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.01J. MacDonald · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.00
COL7 G · 5.4 xG · 62 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsCOL
2.83 G
All situations
6 G5.4
1.72 G
Even strength
6 G3.4
1.11 G
Power play
0 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 112 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET29%71%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.73 – 4.14

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsCOL
40
Shots on goal
47
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/4
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
13
Hits
12
17
Blocked shots
8
3
Giveaways
4
6
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
17F. HronekD112-440.17300—25:08
53M. SeiderD011+150.12112—23:01
2N. LeddyD011-420.26020—20:53
71D. LarkinC000-330.430106720:23
24P. SuterC011-120.150104019:26
14R. FabbriC000-340.37000019:22
82J. OesterleD000-210.03000—18:14
11F. ZadinaR011-370.41040—16:23
65D. DeKeyserD000+120.08122—15:45
23L. RaymondL000-220.19000—15:12
92V. NamestnikovC101+120.2310010014:30
89S. GagnerC011010.161026714:13
90J. VelenoC101010.021203313:15
73A. ErneL000-310.0511010013:14
21D. RenoufD000-210.02100—12:53
27M. RasmussenC000-310.101202012:02
37C. RowneyC000000.001106011:52
48G. SmithR000+110.00100—09:20
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(L)39363.9233.63+0.6347:54
29T. Greiss743.5710.55-2.4510:49

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).