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Jets at Flames
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
▸4
Calgary Flames
2
FinalTV CBC, SN·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Calgary Flames 4-2. The Jets came back from two goals down. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Connor's goal at 15:09 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 48% to 89%. Expected goals were close — WPG 2.7, CGY 2.9; shots on goal were WPG 28, CGY 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 0.9 goals saved above expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kyle Connor (2 G), 2. Elias Lindholm (1 G), 3. Connor Hellebuyck (34 saves, .944).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    K. Connor2 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    E. Lindholm1 G
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    C. Hellebuyck34 saves, .944

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG1131728428
CGYCGY21406016236

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(10)
    J. Gaudreau (15)
    backhandxG 0.02win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:26
  2. CGY
    E. Lindholm(9)PPG
    S. Monahan (8), J. Gaudreau (16)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +10 pts
    0-2
    7:42
  3. WPG
    K. Connor(13)
    B. Wheeler (6), N. Pionk (10)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    16:26

2nd period

  1. WPG
    P. Stastny(5)
    E. Svechnikov (6), L. Stanley (6)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    4:50

3rd period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(14)
    B. Wheeler (7), M. Scheifele (6)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +40 pts
    3-2
    15:09
  2. WPG
    A. Copp(6)EN
    P. Dubois (7)
    slapxG 0.37win prob +5 pts
    4-2
    19:00

Penalties

WPG 8 PIM·CGY 19 PIM

1st

  • 7:35WPGEvgeny Svechnikov · Boardingdrawn by Oliver Kylington2 min
  • 9:45CGYTyler Pitlick · Interferencedrawn by Adam Lowry2 min
  • 17:25CGYMatthew Tkachuk · High stickingdrawn by Nate Schmidt2 min
  • 20:00WPGBrenden Dillon · Hookingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min

2nd

  • 15:32CGYMilan Lucic · Boardingdrawn by Dylan DeMelo5 min
  • 15:32CGYMilan Lucic · Game misconduct10 min
  • 19:27WPGNeal Pionk · Holdingdrawn by Trevor Lewis2 min

3rd

  • 8:14WPGBrenden Dillon · Trippingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalWPG goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Kyle Connor, 3rd 15:09 — WPG 48% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.19B. Richardson · On goal · xG 0.17B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.16S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.15A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.14M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.12O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.12S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.11A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.11M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.11S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.10E. Lindholm · Goal · xG 0.09B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.09M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.09E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.08J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.08A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.07S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.07A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.06N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.06M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.06C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.05B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.05T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.05A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.05M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.04A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.03E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.03E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.03O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.03E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Richardson · Missed · xG 0.01T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY2 G · 2.9 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsCGY
2.73 G
All situations
2 G2.9
1.33 G
Even strength
1 G2.0
0.90 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG41%59%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 2.84

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsCGY
28
Shots on goal
36
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
19
12
Hits
16
18
Blocked shots
7
15
Giveaways
5
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4N. PionkD011+210.09112—24:56
44J. MorrisseyD000020.21110—22:53
9A. CoppC101+120.460105022:08
55M. ScheifeleC011+230.410205021:13
81K. ConnorL202+230.28000—20:33
88N. SchmidtD000000.08000—19:43
26B. WheelerR022+230.22220—18:43
80P. DuboisC011+210.101104518:32
5B. DillonD000+200.00014—17:38
27N. EhlersL000-140.30010—15:41
64L. StanleyD011+110.07230—15:29
2D. DeMeloD000+100.00120—15:25
25P. StastnyC101020.30000013:48
17A. LowryC000010.003005513:27
71E. SvechnikovL011+130.12102—11:57
21D. ToninatoC000000.000105007:47
93K. VesalainenL000010.07010—07:06
12J. HarkinsC000010.03010006:47
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)36342.9442.92+0.9260:00

Season series

WPG leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).