Rangers at Maple Leafs 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

New York Rangers

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸2

FinalTV MSG, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the New York Rangers 2-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dryden Hunt's goal at 3:30 of the third period, which took the Rangers' chances from 8% to 22%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.0 to 2.3; shots on goal were NYR 28, TOR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Igor Shesterkin stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Jack Campbell stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Morgan Rielly (2 G), 2. Jack Campbell (27 saves, .964), 3. Dryden Hunt (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. Rielly2 G
★★
J. Campbell27 saves, .964
★★★
D. Hunt1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	07	07	114	128
TOR	15	112	013	230

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

M. Rielly(2)
W. Simmonds (3), M. Bunting (4)
wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
0-1
3:41

2nd period

M. Rielly(3)PPG
A. Matthews (8), J. Tavares (8)
wristxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
0-2
10:59

3rd period

D. Hunt(1)
R. Strome (8), K. Kakko (2)
snapxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
1-2
3:30

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

4:26Justin Holl · Cross checkingdrawn by Mika Zibanejad2 min

2nd

9:20Dryden Hunt · Trippingdrawn by Jason Spezza2 min
12:38Michael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Strome2 min
12:38Ryan Strome · Elbowingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TOR

100%

Biggest swing: Dryden Hunt, 3rd 3:30 — NYR 8% → 22%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 3.0 xG · 48 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.3 xG · 41 att TOR

2 G · 3.0 xG · 48 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.31 G
All situations: 2 G3.0; 1.71 G
Even strength: 1 G2.7; 0.50 G
Power play: 1 G0.2; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

37%63%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 2.99

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

28
Shots on goal: 30; 20%
Faceoffs: 80%; 0/1
Power play: 1/1; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 31
Hits: 19; 7
Blocked shots: 12; 8
Giveaways: 19; 6
Takeaways: 20

Box score

every player line

New York Rangers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8J. TroubaD	0	0	0	0	5	0.11	3	2	0	—	23:44
23A. FoxD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	22:44
93M. ZibanejadC	0	0	0	0	3	0.53	2	0	0	67	20:50
10A. PanarinL	0	0	0	0	4	0.30	0	0	0	—	20:49
79K. MillerD	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	2	2	0	—	20:25
55R. LindgrenD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	0	—	19:00
16R. StromeC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.12	3	0	2	8	18:33
20C. KreiderL	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	5	0	0	100	17:57
24K. KakkoR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	0	0	0	—	16:41
12P. NemethD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	—	16:00
27N. LundkvistD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	3	0	0	—	15:26
21B. GoodrowC	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	2	0	0	0	15:22
72F. ChytilC	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	1	0	17	14:44
13A. LafrenièreL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	13:25
15J. GauthierR	0	0	0	0	5	0.59	2	0	0	—	12:59
17K. RooneyC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	0	0	0	10	10:09
29D. HuntL	1	0	1	0	1	0.14	0	0	2	—	10:04
75R. ReavesR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	4	0	0	—	09:04

New York Rangers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31I. Shesterkin(L)	30	28	2	.933	3.02	+1.02	58:25

Season series

NYR leads 2-1

Oct 182@1OTFinal
Nov 181@2this game
Jan 193@6Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score