Wild at Canucks 3-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Minnesota Wild

▸3

Vancouver Canucks

FinalTV BSN, BSWI·Rogers Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Vancouver Canucks 3-2. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mathew Dumba's goal at 3:54 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 74% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 2.3 to 1.9; shots on goal were MIN 30, VAN 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 22 of 24 (.917); Thatcher Demko stopped 27 of 30 (.900), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mathew Dumba (1 G), 2. Bo Horvat (1 G), 3. Mats Zuccarello (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. Dumba1 G
★★
B. Horvat1 G
★★★
M. Zuccarello1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	112	111	17	330
VAN	08	111	15	224

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

M. Zuccarello(3)
J. Eriksson Ek (1), D. Kulikov (2)
wristxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
1-0
7:41

2nd period

J. Brodin(1)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.19win prob +17 pts
2-0
2:27
A. Chiasson(2)PPG
E. Pettersson (3), Q. Hughes (4)
deflectedxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
2-1
10:46

3rd period

M. Dumba(1)
R. Pitlick (1), B. Duhaime (2)
wristxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
3-1
3:54
B. Horvat(4)
T. Myers (3)
backhandxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
3-2
15:53

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

4:57Kyle Burroughs · Cross checkingdrawn by Nick Bjugstad2 min
11:34Conor Garland · Interferencedrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min
17:17Mathew Dumba · Trippingdrawn by Justin Bailey2 min

2nd

8:51Nick Bjugstad · Hookingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
14:31Rem Pitlick · Hookingdrawn by Nils Hoglander2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: VAN

Biggest swing: Mathew Dumba, 3rd 3:54 — MIN 74% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 1.9 xG · 33 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.3 xG · 35 att VAN

2 G · 1.9 xG · 33 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.33 G
All situations: 2 G1.9; 2.13 G
Even strength: 1 G1.1; 0.20 G
Power play: 1 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 68 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

57%43%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.26 – 1.91

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 24; 45%
Faceoffs: 55%; 0/2
Power play: 1/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 21
Hits: 22; 16
Blocked shots: 11; 3
Giveaways: 6; 2
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
24M. DumbaD	1	0	1	+2	1	0.15	1	2	2	—	23:11
25J. BrodinD	1	0	1	+1	4	0.29	1	2	0	—	20:33
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	20:24
47A. GoligoskiD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.02	0	2	0	—	19:32
36M. ZuccarelloR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.14	0	0	0	100	18:26
14J. Eriksson EkC	0	1	1	+2	2	0.13	1	4	0	37	18:21
97K. KaprizovL	0	0	0	0	4	0.10	1	0	0	—	17:55
89F. GaudreauC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.50	1	0	0	36	17:41
4J. MerrillD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0	0	0	—	17:28
29D. KulikovD	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	3	0	—	16:58
22K. FialaL	0	0	0	-1	3	0.35	0	0	0	—	16:51
17M. FolignoL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	2	0	0	—	16:36
38R. HartmanR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	2	0	0	45	13:46
7N. SturmC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.14	0	0	0	56	13:32
18J. GreenwayL	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	3	0	0	100	12:35
27N. BjugstadC	0	0	0	0	0	0.11	2	0	2	100	10:50
21B. DuhaimeL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.15	5	1	0	—	10:19
16R. PitlickC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.16	1	0	2	100	09:07

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
33C. Talbot(W)	24	22	2	.917	1.92	-0.08	60:00

Season series

MIN leads 3-0

Oct 263@2this game
Mar 242@3OTFinal
Apr 213@6Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score