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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Final/OTTV SN, TVAS2·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in overtime, Josh Norris scoring at 0:09. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Norris's goal at 0:09 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.2, OTT 2.2; shots on goal were TOR 33, OTT 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.8 goals below expected; Filip Gustavsson stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Josh Norris (1 G), 2. Connor Brown (1 G), 3. Jake Muzzin (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    J. Norris1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    C. Brown1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Muzzin1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR062181900333
OTTOTT1102120511428

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    N. Zaitsev(4)
    S. Pinto (6)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    18:52

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Muzzin(4)PPG
    J. Thornton (15), A. Kerfoot (14)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    6:01
  2. OTT
    C. Brown(21)SHG
    N. Zaitsev (13)
    wristxG 0.35win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    9:07
  3. OTT
    P. Kelly(1)
    E. Brannstrom (11), A. Anisimov (7)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    12:12
  4. TOR
    J. Tavares(19)
    W. Nylander (25), J. Muzzin (22)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    16:29

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(41)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.05win prob +42 pts
    3-3
    17:20

Overtime

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(17)
    B. Tkachuk (19)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    0:09

Penalties

TOR 10 PIM·OTT 12 PIM

1st

  • 4:37OTTBrady Tkachuk · Interferencedrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 8:16TORTJ Brodie · Trippingdrawn by Evgenii Dadonov2 min
  • 12:17OTTShane Pinto · Slashingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 16:28TORWilliam Nylander · Slashingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

2nd

  • 4:56OTTShane Pinto · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 6:40TORPierre Engvall · Slashingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 8:04OTTLogan Brown · Slashingdrawn by Ilya Mikheyev2 min
  • 13:14OTTShane Pinto · Delaying game face off violation2 min
  • 16:47TORNick Foligno · Roughingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 16:47OTTBrady Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Nick Foligno2 min

3rd

  • 14:58TORJohn Tavares · High stickingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Josh Norris, OT 0:09 — OTT 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Brown · Goal · xG 0.35C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.15J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.14A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.14N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.11B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.10C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.06D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.05P. Kelly · Goal · xG 0.05A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.05S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.05E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.03A. Anisimov · Missed · xG 0.03A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.03S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.03C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.03J. Bernard-Docker · Missed · xG 0.02N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.02A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.02V. Mete · Missed · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Goal · xG 0.01A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.01L. Brown · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.00A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.00A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 2.2 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
2.23 G
All situations
4 G2.2
1.62 G
Even strength
3 G1.3
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR52%48%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.21 – 2.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
33
Shots on goal
28
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/5
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
12
27
Hits
28
11
Blocked shots
15
11
Giveaways
9
8
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
16M. MarnerR000-330.26000—21:53
44M. RiellyD000-320.15300—21:13
8J. MuzzinD112+230.11230—20:13
78T. BrodieD000010.01012—19:35
34A. MatthewsC101-260.381005319:25
71N. FolignoL000+120.086025017:37
3J. HollD000020.05110—17:25
23T. DermottD000000.00020—17:15
88W. NylanderR011020.34002—16:40
55B. HuttonD000-110.02000—16:37
91J. TavaresC101020.243025016:15
15A. KerfootC011020.291206315:38
12A. GalchenyukC000-110.08100012:49
65I. MikheyevR000010.00000—12:25
97J. ThorntonC011-100.001006712:15
19J. SpezzaC000030.122006411:53
24W. SimmondsR000000.00220—11:05
47P. EngvallL000020.0840210010:50
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(O)28244.8572.19-1.8159:26

Season series

TOR leads 5-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).