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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
Ottawa Senators
2
FinalTV ESPN+, SNO·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 3-2. The Senators scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 1:10 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 47% to 63%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.7, OTT 2.5; shots on goal were TOR 40, OTT 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 17 of 19 (.895), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Matt Murray stopped 37 of 40 (.925). Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G, 2 A), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 3. Tim Stützle (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR110119111340
OTTOTT170517219

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    N. Paul(1)
    N. Zaitsev (3), C. Brown (1)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    10:55
  2. TOR
    J. Thornton(1)
    M. Marner (2), T. Brodie (1)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    14:17

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(1)
    A. Matthews (2)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    1:10

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(1)PPG
    M. Marner (3), J. Thornton (1)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    3-1
    2:42
  2. OTT
    T. Stützle(1)
    T. Chabot (1), C. White (1)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    3-2
    11:44

Penalties

TOR 10 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:26TORMitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

2nd

  • 3:59TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Evgenii Dadonov2 min
  • 8:04OTTThomas Chabot · Slashingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 9:49OTTCedric Paquette · Delaying game face off violation2 min
  • 13:50TORIlya Mikheyev · High stickingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 14:30TORMitch Marner · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 1:50OTTJoshua Brown · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 12:27TORZach Hyman · High stickingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 17:11OTTTim Stützle · Trippingdrawn by Jake Muzzin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 2nd 1:10 — TOR 47% → 63%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.24C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.15E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.14J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.14N. Paul · Goal · xG 0.13D. Stepan · Missed · xG 0.13E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.12J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.12T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.11C. White · Missed · xG 0.11J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10D. Stepan · On goal · xG 0.09T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.09E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.08T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.06E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.05T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.05C. White · On goal · xG 0.04T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.04E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.03M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.03T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Stepan · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 2.5 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
2.73 G
All situations
2 G2.5
1.62 G
Even strength
2 G1.2
1.11 G
Power play
0 G1.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR53%47%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
40
Shots on goal
19
63%
Faceoffs
38%
1/4
Power play
0/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
15
Hits
30
6
Blocked shots
21
8
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000050.10200—24:43
16M. MarnerR123+120.21124—23:46
8J. MuzzinD000050.19100—23:25
3J. HollD000000.00210—22:26
34A. MatthewsC112+160.612005021:50
78T. BrodieD011+110.08110—21:45
91J. TavaresC000-140.202028218:19
11Z. HymanL000000.040125017:47
88W. NylanderR000-120.35000—17:03
65I. MikheyevR000010.01002—15:21
26J. VeseyL000-130.14210—15:01
15A. KerfootC000030.201004414:39
22Z. BogosianD000-110.03000—14:15
97J. ThorntonC112+130.271003314:05
23T. DermottD000020.16000—08:57
24W. SimmondsR000000.04000—07:33
19J. SpezzaC000010.0400010006:57
89N. RobertsonL000010.06000—02:20
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(W)19172.8952.55+0.5559:48

Season series

TOR leads 5-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).