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Jets at Maple Leafs
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV SNO, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Adam Lowry's goal at 7:39 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 48% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.4 to 2.8; shots on goal were WPG 32, TOR 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Laurent Brossoit stopped 20 of 22 (.909), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Adam Lowry (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mason Appleton (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mark Scheifele (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    A. Lowry1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    M. Appleton1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    M. Scheifele1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG07213312532
TORTOR072906222

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. WPG
    M. Appleton(8)
    A. Lowry (10), A. Copp (13)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    1:41
  2. TOR
    J. Muzzin(2)SHG
    M. Marner (27)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    5:03
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(12)
    J. Thornton (9), J. Holl (9)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    7:12
  4. WPG
    P. Stastny(9)
    M. Scheifele (24), L. Stanley (1)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +21 pts
    2-2
    16:34

3rd period

  1. WPG
    A. Lowry(5)
    M. Appleton (7), D. DeMelo (4)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +30 pts
    3-2
    7:39
  2. WPG
    N. Ehlers(14)PPG
    N. Pionk (20), A. Copp (14)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +10 pts
    4-2
    14:34
  3. WPG
    M. Scheifele(12)PPG
    J. Morrissey (10), B. Wheeler (18)
    wristxG 0.11
    5-2
    16:32

Penalties

WPG 6 PIM·TOR 10 PIM

1st

  • 11:00WPGMark Scheifele · Trippingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

2nd

  • 4:02TORZach Bogosian · Slashingdrawn by Blake Wheeler2 min
  • 16:51WPGJosh Morrissey · Hookingdrawn by TJ Brodie2 min
  • 17:28TORJoe Thornton · Interferencedrawn by Andrew Copp2 min
  • 17:43WPGPierre-Luc Dubois · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min

3rd

  • 12:50TORMorgan Rielly · Interferencedrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 15:46TORZach Hyman · Interferencedrawn by Blake Wheeler2 min
  • 15:46TORserved by T. Boyd · Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalWPG goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Adam Lowry, 3rd 7:39 — WPG 48% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.27J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.23J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.20A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.20M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.17I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.13I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.12J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.11W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.08J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.07I. Mikheyev · Missed · xG 0.07P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.07J. Muzzin · Goal · xG 0.07M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.07J. Spezza · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.05T. Boyd · Missed · xG 0.05P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.03A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR2 G · 2.8 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsTOR
3.45 G
All situations
2 G2.8
2.63 G
Even strength
1 G1.8
0.72 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG62%38%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.43 – 2.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsTOR
32
Shots on goal
22
46%
Faceoffs
54%
2/4
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
31
Hits
15
14
Blocked shots
11
8
Giveaways
23
2
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD011+140.19332—24:15
24D. ForbortD000-120.13120—21:38
4N. PionkD011-130.09620—21:28
55M. ScheifeleC112-120.201125620:33
26B. WheelerR011-140.42100—18:53
2D. DeMeloD011+210.00200—18:34
25P. StastnyC101-120.313005018:24
9A. CoppC022+210.271105017:38
17A. LowryC112+210.124003317:21
81K. ConnorL000-110.2100010017:08
3T. PoolmanD000+100.00210—16:38
22M. AppletonC112+220.15000016:06
27N. EhlersL101030.55010—14:57
13P. DuboisC000010.071123114:08
64L. StanleyD011+100.00120—12:44
85M. PerreaultC000020.08100008:35
11N. ThompsonC000000.002004007:40
23T. LewisC000030.6320010007:20
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30L. Brossoit(W)22202.9092.83+0.8360:00

Season series

TOR leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).