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Jets at Maple Leafs
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
1
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
FinalTV TVAS, SNO·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 18:39 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 75% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.5 to 1.9; shots on goal were WPG 28, TOR 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (1 G), 2. Frederik Andersen (27 saves, .964), 3. Connor Hellebuyck (35 saves, .946).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    F. Andersen27 saves, .964
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    C. Hellebuyck35 saves, .946

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG01016012128
TORTOR01022216338

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(3)PPG
    W. Nylander (3), J. Muzzin (1)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    5:28
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(2)
    J. Holl (3), A. Matthews (3)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    18:39
  3. WPG
    K. Connor(2)
    D. Forbort (2), N. Pionk (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    19:13

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(3)EN
    A. Kerfoot (1), J. Holl (4)
    snapxG 0.79win prob +2 pts
    1-3
    19:37

Penalties

WPG 4 PIM·TOR 10 PIM

1st

  • 5:03WPGKyle Connor · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Frederik Andersen2 min
  • 5:03TORJustin Holl · Roughingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min
  • 14:33TORZach Hyman · Hookingdrawn by Trevor Lewis2 min

2nd

  • 3:33WPGSami Niku · Holdingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 7:45TORTravis Dermott · Holdingdrawn by Adam Lowry2 min

3rd

  • 1:25TORJake Muzzin · Holdingdrawn by Mason Appleton2 min
  • 14:45TORMorgan Rielly · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalWPG goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 2nd 18:39 — TOR 75% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.79M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.29W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.24Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.21I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.20W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.16J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.15A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.14A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.14Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.13Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.13A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07J. Thornton · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.05J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.05M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.02J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.01T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.01T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.01J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.01T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 4.5 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsTOR
1.91 G
All situations
2 G4.5
1.21 G
Even strength
1 G2.2
0.70 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG23%77%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.91 – 3.56

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsTOR
28
Shots on goal
38
35%
Faceoffs
65%
0/4
Power play
1/1
4
Penalty minutes
10
31
Hits
25
11
Blocked shots
10
13
Giveaways
12
6
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55M. ScheifeleC000-250.391003326:17
44J. MorrisseyD000-130.11420—25:08
4N. PionkD011010.02310—23:44
26B. WheelerR000-130.18300—23:03
81K. ConnorL101010.23102—21:35
25P. StastnyC000+110.192005019:43
24D. ForbortD011+110.02220—19:16
27N. EhlersL000+130.15100—16:58
88N. BeaulieuD000010.02100—16:29
9A. CoppC000-210.11210016:21
8S. NikuD000-110.01022—14:22
17A. LowryC000-110.174002513:54
85M. PerreaultC000-110.12010011:53
64L. StanleyD000030.03100—11:19
12J. HarkinsC000000.08100010:35
22M. AppletonC000020.08300010:16
23T. LewisC000000.00220008:28
11N. ThompsonC000000.000004008:24
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(L)37352.9463.71+1.7158:20

Season series

TOR leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).