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Maple Leafs at Oilers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV ESPN+, SN·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Edmonton Oilers 3-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Nylander's goal at 10:20 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 60% to 75%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.3, EDM 2.3; shots on goal were TOR 23, EDM 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Michael Hutchinson stopped 31 of 31 (1.000), 2.3 goals saved above expected; Mike Smith stopped 13 of 13 (1.000), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Michael Hutchinson (31 saves, 1.000), 2. Morgan Rielly (1 G, 1 A), 3. William Nylander (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Hutchinson31 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Rielly1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR3100508323
EDMEDM0908014031

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    7:19
  2. TOR
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    10:20
  3. TOR
    M. Rielly(3)PPG
    slapxG 0.04win prob +9 pts
    3-0
    18:07

Penalties

TOR 23 PIM·EDM 38 PIM

1st

  • 15:15TORJake Muzzin · Hookingdrawn by Josh Archibald2 min
  • 15:18EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins · Trippingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min
  • 17:19EDMAdam Larsson · Hookingdrawn by Ilya Mikheyev2 min

2nd

  • 5:17TORMorgan Rielly · Interferencedrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 8:29TORTravis Dermott · Hookingdrawn by Jujhar Khaira2 min
  • 12:55EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins · Interferencedrawn by Zach Bogosian2 min
  • 15:17EDMConnor McDavid · Cross checkingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min

3rd

  • 5:42TORAlexander Barabanov · Hookingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min
  • 19:35EDMJosh Archibald · Fightingdrawn by Travis Dermott5 min
  • 19:35TORTravis Dermott · Fightingdrawn by Josh Archibald5 min
  • 19:35EDMDarnell Nurse · Misconductdrawn by Zach Bogosian10 min
  • 19:35TORZach Bogosian · Misconductdrawn by Darnell Nurse10 min
  • 20:00EDMAlex Chiasson · Cross checkingdrawn by Jimmy Vesey5 min
  • 20:00EDMAlex Chiasson · Game misconductdrawn by Jimmy Vesey10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalTOR goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: William Nylander, 1st 10:20 — TOR 60% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Kahun · On goal · xG 0.22C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.17L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.15L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.15R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.14D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.12J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.10E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.09A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.09R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.08K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.07K. Yamamoto · Missed · xG 0.06D. Kahun · On goal · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06J. Khaira · On goal · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.05A. Chiasson · Missed · xG 0.05L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.04J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.04J. Puljujarvi · Missed · xG 0.04R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.04C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.04K. Yamamoto · Missed · xG 0.03A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kahun · On goal · xG 0.03D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.03R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.03E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.03E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02E. Bear · Missed · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02P. Russell · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.01P. Russell · On goal · xG 0.01C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.01A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.00C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM0 G · 2.3 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsEDM
2.33 G
All situations
0 G2.3
1.52 G
Even strength
0 G1.9
0.61 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR49%51%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.29 – 2.33

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsEDM
23
Shots on goal
31
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/4
Power play
0/4
23
Penalty minutes
38
16
Hits
22
14
Blocked shots
7
7
Giveaways
8
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. HollD000+100.13300—22:25
44M. RiellyD112+140.31322—21:25
78T. BrodieD000+100.04210—21:13
8J. MuzzinD000+120.06212—21:06
16M. MarnerR011010.31020—20:53
11Z. HymanL101+110.31110—19:53
91J. TavaresC000030.350204119:35
22Z. BogosianD000020.031110—16:33
97J. ThorntonC000000.09000014:48
65I. MikheyevR011+140.39010—14:42
47P. EngvallL000+110.081002914:11
23T. DermottD000000.00017—13:59
15A. KerfootC000+100.000001713:30
88W. NylanderR112+130.1400010013:25
94A. BarabanovL000+100.00102—11:57
19J. SpezzaC000020.020206711:26
26J. VeseyL000000.04200—10:48
72T. BoydC000000.00000010:25
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Hutchinson(W)313101.0002.34+2.3459:46

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).