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Maple Leafs at Oilers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Edmonton Oilers
▸4
Final/OTTV NHLN, SN·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in overtime, Connor McDavid scoring at 0:42. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor McDavid's goal at 0:42 of overtime, which took the Oilers' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.7 to 2.1; shots on goal were TOR 29, EDM 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 27 of 31 (.871); Mikko Koskinen stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (2 G, 1 A), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G), 3. Leon Draisaitl (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    C. McDavid2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR192100901329
EDMEDM2131110611431

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    D. Kahun(1)
    L. Draisaitl (8)
    snapxG 0.27win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    11:28
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(4)
    J. Tavares (5), I. Mikheyev (2)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    17:46
  3. EDM
    J. Archibald(2)
    C. McDavid (10), T. Ennis (1)
    slapxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    19:46

2nd period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(6)PPG
    T. Barrie (4)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    1-3
    6:13
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(6)
    M. Marner (9), J. Muzzin (3)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    8:08
  3. TOR
    Z. Hyman(2)PPG
    J. Tavares (6), M. Lehtonen (1)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    3-3
    9:16

Overtime

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(7)
    L. Draisaitl (9), T. Barrie (5)
    tip-inxG 0.52win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    0:42

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·EDM 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:38TORMikko Lehtonen · Ps covering puck in crease0 min

2nd

  • 5:51TORWilliam Nylander · Interferencedrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min
  • 8:34EDMLeon Draisaitl · Cross checkingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 14:06TORMikko Lehtonen · Holdingdrawn by Jesse Puljujarvi2 min

3rd

  • 7:43EDMKailer Yamamoto · Holdingdrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalTOR goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Connor McDavid, OT 0:42 — EDM 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.52D. Kahun · Goal · xG 0.27T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.26J. Archibald · Goal · xG 0.18A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.17L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.17C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.17J. Archibald · Missed · xG 0.15C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.14C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.13R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.13Z. Kassian · Missed · xG 0.12J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.12R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.12T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.11R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.09D. Kahun · Missed · xG 0.09T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.09J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.09J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.08K. Yamamoto · Missed · xG 0.07T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.06D. Kahun · On goal · xG 0.05K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.04J. Neal · Missed · xG 0.04T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.03A. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.02L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.02T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.02K. Turris · Missed · xG 0.01A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.01T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.01K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.00T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM4 G · 3.7 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsEDM
2.13 G
All situations
4 G3.7
1.62 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.51 G
Power play
1 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR24%76%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.08 – 3.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsEDM
29
Shots on goal
31
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
19
16
Blocked shots
10
8
Giveaways
10
8
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000-110.01220—24:43
78T. BrodieD000020.05010—23:57
8J. MuzzinD011+120.04020—23:11
3J. HollD000-100.01100—22:49
34A. MatthewsC101-140.211205022:41
16M. MarnerR011040.28120—22:26
11Z. HymanL101-150.66010—22:04
91J. TavaresC022010.032005318:45
88W. NylanderR101+130.41002—17:30
65I. MikheyevR011+100.00210—14:40
22Z. BogosianD000010.06210—14:37
24W. SimmondsR000020.17210—13:24
15A. KerfootC000000.000202112:37
26J. VeseyL000+120.03210—12:30
19J. SpezzaC000-110.080003310:24
46M. LehtonenD011000.04002—09:09
94A. BarabanovL000-100.00000—07:29
47P. EngvallL000-110.0220010007:15
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(O)31274.8713.71-0.2960:15

Season series

TOR leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).