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Jets at Flames
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
▸3
Calgary Flames
2
FinalTV NHL.TV, NHLN·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Calgary Flames 3-2. The Jets scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikolaj Ehlers's goal at 10:24 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 54% to 81%. Expected goals were close — WPG 2.4, CGY 2.4; shots on goal were WPG 26, CGY 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 28 of 30 (.933); Cam Talbot stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Adam Lowry (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jack Roslovic (2 A), 3. Nikolaj Ehlers (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    A. Lowry1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    J. Roslovic2 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    N. Ehlers1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG1911116326
CGYCGY01021109230

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    J. Harkins(1)
    A. Lowry (2), J. Roslovic (1)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    7:18

2nd period

  1. WPG
    A. Lowry(1)
    J. Roslovic (2), J. Morrissey (1)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    5:43
  2. CGY
    E. Lindholm(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    11:29
  3. CGY
    S. Bennett(1)
    M. Lucic (2), N. Hanifin (1)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.07win prob +22 pts
    2-2
    17:29

3rd period

  1. WPG
    N. Ehlers(1)PPG
    N. Pionk (1), K. Connor (1)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +27 pts
    3-2
    10:24

Penalties

WPG 14 PIM·CGY 14 PIM

1st

  • 2:29WPGNicholas Shore · Roughingdrawn by Cam Talbot2 min

2nd

  • 3:03CGYZac Rinaldo · Cross checkingdrawn by Gabriel Bourque2 min
  • 3:03CGYTJ Brodie · Holdingdrawn by Gabriel Bourque2 min
  • 7:32WPGserved by N. Ehlers · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 13:25WPGJosh Morrissey · Trippingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 19:17WPGCody Eakin · Holdingdrawn by Mikael Backlund2 min

3rd

  • 2:02CGYDerek Forbort · Hookingdrawn by Blake Wheeler2 min
  • 7:27WPGNikolaj Ehlers · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 9:34CGYMark Giordano · Trippingdrawn by Adam Lowry2 min
  • 10:24CGYSam Bennett · Cross checkingdrawn by Jansen Harkins2 min
  • 13:35WPGAndrew Copp · Roughingdrawn by Mikael Backlund2 min
  • 13:35CGYMikael Backlund · Roughingdrawn by Andrew Copp2 min
  • 17:29CGYAndrew Mangiapane · Cross checkingdrawn by Cody Eakin2 min
  • 19:22WPGAndrew Copp · Slashingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalWPG goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Nikolaj Ehlers, 3rd 10:24 — WPG 54% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.40M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.16S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.13E. Lindholm · Goal · xG 0.12A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.12M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.11E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.11M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.09M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.09M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.08M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08S. Bennett · Goal · xG 0.07R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.07A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.06M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.06M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.04S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.04D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.04A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.03E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.03J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.03M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03E. Gustafsson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.02T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.01E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY2 G · 2.4 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsCGY
2.43 G
All situations
2 G2.4
1.32 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
1.01 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG51%49%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.44 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsCGY
26
Shots on goal
30
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/6
Power play
0/6
14
Penalty minutes
14
31
Hits
39
12
Blocked shots
12
14
Giveaways
16
8
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
81K. ConnorL011040.59000—24:26
26B. WheelerR000020.2552010023:04
9A. CoppC000020.350144722:51
12D. DeMeloD000010.13300—22:14
4N. PionkD011020.12310—21:38
7D. KulikovD000000.00210—20:01
44J. MorrisseyD011000.00122—17:59
20C. EakinC000-110.052024617:45
88N. BeaulieuD000010.07220—17:23
27N. EhlersL101-130.28212—16:26
17A. LowryC112+230.222106915:43
3T. PoolmanD000010.05100—13:54
28J. RoslovicC022+230.14000012:32
85M. PerreaultC000-100.00300012:29
21N. ShoreC000-110.011026010:20
58J. HarkinsC101+110.16100009:29
38L. ShawR000-110.01100—05:09
57G. BourqueL000000.00210—04:03
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)30282.9332.40+0.4060:00

Series

CGY leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).