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Maple Leafs at Sharks
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks

FinalTV ESPN+, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The San Jose Sharks beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The Sharks scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Stefan Noesen's goal at 5:48 of the third period, which took the Sharks' chances from 52% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Sharks, 4.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were TOR 27, SJS 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sharks win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 33 of 37 (.892), 1.3 goals below expected; Martin Jones stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Evander Kane (2 G), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 3. Antti Suomela (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    SJS
    E. Kane2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    SJS
    A. Suomela1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0142607227
SJSSJS11111839538

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. SJS
    E. Kane(23)PPG
    B. Burns (32), L. Couture (23)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +9 pts
    0-1
    6:38

2nd period

  1. TOR
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    2:48
  2. SJS
    wristxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    3:54
  3. TOR
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +22 pts
    2-2
    17:27

3rd period

  1. SJS
    wristxG 0.24win prob +27 pts
    2-3
    5:48
  2. SJS
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    6:38
  3. SJS
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.67
    2-5
    19:03

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·SJS 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:11SJSNoah Gregor · Trippingdrawn by Martin Marincin2 min
  • 6:08TORTravis Dermott · Interferencedrawn by Timo Meier2 min

2nd

  • 8:19TORJustin Holl · Interferencedrawn by Noah Gregor2 min
  • 17:53SJSNoah Gregor · Hookingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

3rd

  • 11:50SJSMario Ferraro · Holdingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalTOR goalFinal: SJS 100%

Biggest swing: Stefan Noesen, 3rd 5:48 — SJS 52% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Simek · Goal · xG 0.67M. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.61S. Noesen · Goal · xG 0.24L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.18T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.16J. Kellman · On goal · xG 0.13S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.12E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.12E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.12T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.11E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.10T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.10N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.10A. Suomela · On goal · xG 0.09T. Meier · Missed · xG 0.08T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.07J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.07D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.07T. Meier · Missed · xG 0.07M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.06S. Noesen · Missed · xG 0.06A. Suomela · Goal · xG 0.05L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.05T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.05S. Noesen · Missed · xG 0.05L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.04E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.04E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.04E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.04K. Labanc · Missed · xG 0.03B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.03E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.03R. Simek · On goal · xG 0.03B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.03M. Vlasic · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kellman · Missed · xG 0.02M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.02E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02J. Kellman · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.01B. Davidson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Davidson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Simek · On goal · xG 0.01T. Heed · On goal · xG 0.00A. Suomela · On goal · xG 0.00M. Sorensen · On goal · xG 0.00R. Simek · On goal · xG 0.00
SJS5 G · 4.0 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsSJS
2.62 G
All situations
4 G4.0
1.42 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.90 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR49%51%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.60 – 2.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsSJS
27
Shots on goal
38
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
18
Hits
18
11
Blocked shots
15
11
Giveaways
10
7
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
94T. BarrieD000010.07100—26:27
23T. DermottD000-110.09022—22:25
34A. MatthewsC112050.481005621:46
16M. MarnerR101+120.29010—21:30
11Z. HymanL000+110.261004020:53
88W. NylanderR000-220.23000—20:25
91J. TavaresC000-230.331006019:16
3J. HollD000-110.02332—18:05
52M. MarincinD011-120.16220—17:45
48C. RosenD011-110.01000—16:36
15A. KerfootC000-110.06010016:01
24K. KapanenR000-100.02010—14:51
19J. SpezzaC000020.220006711:55
33F. GauthierC000-110.091004411:06
37T. LiljegrenD000000.00100—10:55
73K. CliffordL000030.24610—10:14
47P. EngvallL000-110.05000—09:46
62D. MalginC000-100.00100009:35
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(L)37334.8922.72-1.2857:44

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).