Flyers at Rangers 5-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Philadelphia Flyers

▸5

New York Rangers

FinalTV NBC, TVAS·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The Philadelphia Flyers beat the New York Rangers 5-3. The Flyers scored first and never trailed. The Flyers led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Raffl's goal at 17:53 of the first period, which took the Flyers' chances from 75% to 88%. Expected goals were close — PHI 4.2, NYR 4.2; shots on goal were PHI 26, NYR 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Rangers win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Carter Hart stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Henrik Lundqvist stopped 21 of 26 (.808), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Derek Grant (1 G, 1 A), 2. Travis Konecny (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mika Zibanejad (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
D. Grant1 G, 1 A
★★
T. Konecny1 G, 1 A
★★★
M. Zibanejad2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	313	27	06	526
NYR	09	15	212	326

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

M. Niskanen(8)PPG
N. Aube-Kubel (7), T. Sanheim (14)
wristxG 0.35win prob +9 pts
1-0
1:52
S. Couturier(21)PPG
J. Voracek (39), T. Konecny (37)
wristxG 0.31win prob +12 pts
2-0
11:19
M. Raffl(7)SHG
D. Grant (7)
backhandxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
3-0
17:53

2nd period

D. Grant(15)
T. Pitlick (11), T. Sanheim (15)
backhandxG 0.18win prob +6 pts
4-0
1:23
M. Zibanejad(31)PPG
A. Panarin (57), T. DeAngelo (35)
tip-inxG 0.10win prob +3 pts
4-1
12:34
T. Konecny(23)PPG
J. Voracek (40), I. Provorov (22)
tip-inxG 0.14win prob +2 pts
5-1
15:34

3rd period

P. Buchnevich(15)PPG
T. DeAngelo (36), M. Zibanejad (33)
tip-inxG 0.13win prob +1 pts
5-2
5:33
M. Zibanejad(32)PPG
A. Panarin (58), B. Howden (8)
backhandxG 0.13win prob +2 pts
5-3
12:39

Penalties

12 PIM·

20 PIM

1st

0:23Ryan Lindgren · Hookingdrawn by Travis Konecny2 min
5:36Scott Laughton · Hookingdrawn by Brendan Lemieux2 min
10:46Ryan Strome · Hookingdrawn by Jakub Voracek2 min
16:16Kevin Hayes · Trippingdrawn by Brendan Smith2 min

2nd

8:39Brendan Lemieux · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Nicolas Aube-Kubel2 min
8:39Brendan Lemieux · Misconductdrawn by Nicolas Aube-Kubel10 min
12:17Nate Thompson · High stickingdrawn by Mika Zibanejad2 min
13:20Travis Sanheim · Trippingdrawn by Mika Zibanejad2 min
15:29Ryan Strome · Slashingdrawn by Robert Hagg2 min
17:13Brett Howden · Trippingdrawn by Kevin Hayes2 min

3rd

5:21Matt Niskanen · Interferencedrawn by Pavel Buchnevich2 min
11:29Nate Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Kaapo Kakko2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYR

Biggest swing: Michael Raffl, 1st 17:53 — PHI 75% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 4.2 xG · 46 att

←

attacks

attacks →

5 G · 4.2 xG · 35 att NYR

3 G · 4.2 xG · 46 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.25 G
All situations: 3 G4.2; 1.81 G
Even strength: 0 G3.0; 2.33 G
Power play: 3 G1.2; 0.11 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

49%51%

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.00 – 4.10

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 26; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 3/5
Power play: 3/6; 12
Penalty minutes: 20; 25
Hits: 27; 13
Blocked shots: 6; 9
Giveaways: 9; 5
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Philadelphia Flyers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
9I. ProvorovD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.17	0	1	0	—	26:06
15M. NiskanenD	1	0	1	+1	3	0.79	7	3	2	—	22:22
6T. SanheimD	0	2	2	+1	1	0.03	1	1	2	—	19:36
14S. CouturierC	1	0	1	0	2	0.61	0	0	0	36	18:44
11T. KonecnyR	1	1	2	0	2	0.60	0	0	0	—	17:20
21S. LaughtonC	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	1	2	0	16:46
13K. HayesR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	2	54	16:33
5P. MyersD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	2	1	0	—	16:31
61J. BraunD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	0	—	16:21
93J. VoracekR	0	2	2	0	4	0.35	2	0	0	—	15:38
28C. GirouxR	0	0	0	0	2	0.22	0	0	0	17	14:56
18T. PitlickC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	3	0	0	0	14:37
38D. GrantC	1	1	2	+2	3	0.63	0	2	0	70	14:37
8R. HaggD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	14:32
25J. van RiemsdykL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	12:57
44N. ThompsonC	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	2	0	4	60	12:47
12M. RafflL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.20	1	0	0	—	11:02
62N. Aube-KubelR	0	1	1	0	2	0.42	3	0	0	—	10:56

Philadelphia Flyers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
79C. Hart(W)	26	23	3	.885	4.18	+1.18	60:00

Season series

PHI leads 3-0

Dec 231@5Final
Feb 282@5Final
Mar 15@3this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score