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Sabres at Golden Knights
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Vegas Golden Knights
▸4
FinalTV ATTSN-RM, MSG-B·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The Sabres scored first; the Golden Knights answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Karlsson's goal at 3:06 of the third period, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 52% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 3.1 to 2.4; shots on goal were BUF 34, VGK 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Carter Hutton stopped 24 of 27 (.889); Robin Lehner stopped 32 of 34 (.941). Three stars: 1. Reilly Smith (2 G), 2. Robin Lehner (32 saves, .941), 3. Nicolas Roy (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    VGK
    R. Smith2 G
  2. ★★
    VGK
    R. Lehner32 saves, .941
  3. ★★★
    VGK
    N. Roy1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF1906119234
VGKVGK11106311428

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    D. Kahun(11)
    M. Johansson (19), J. Vesey (11)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:16
  2. VGK
    N. Roy(4)
    N. Cousins (14), N. Holden (7)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    11:12

3rd period

  1. VGK
    W. Karlsson(14)
    M. Pacioretty (33), C. Stephenson (14)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +25 pts
    1-2
    3:06
  2. VGK
    R. Smith(26)
    P. Stastny (20), Z. Whitecloud (1)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    5:25
  3. VGK
    R. Smith(27)EN
    J. Marchessault (24)
    wristxG 0.55win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    18:11
  4. BUF
    J. Skinner(13)
    B. Montour (13), J. McCabe (9)
    backhandxG 0.07
    2-4
    19:48

Penalties

BUF 0 PIM·VGK 2 PIM

2nd

  • 14:18VGKJonathan Marchessault · Holdingdrawn by Jimmy Vesey2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalBUF goalFinal: VGK 100%

Biggest swing: William Karlsson, 3rd 3:06 — VGK 52% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Smith · Goal · xG 0.55J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.32N. Roy · Goal · xG 0.19W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.16W. Karlsson · Goal · xG 0.16P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.15P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.15R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.12M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.12C. Stephenson · On goal · xG 0.11R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.10N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.10R. Smith · Goal · xG 0.09Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.09R. Reaves · Missed · xG 0.08W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.07P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.07W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.06W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.05J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.04G. Quinney · Missed · xG 0.04J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.03M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.02W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.02M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.02N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.02N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.02S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.01N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.01S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.01N. Holden · Missed · xG 0.00N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.00W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.00
VGK4 G · 3.1 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsVGK
2.42 G
All situations
3 G3.1
2.12 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF47%53%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.34 – 2.51

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsVGK
34
Shots on goal
28
32%
Faceoffs
68%
0/1
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
2
31
Hits
28
11
Blocked shots
24
6
Giveaways
7
10
Takeaways
15

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000-250.24310—23:36
9J. EichelC000-340.170005023:25
62B. MontourD011+110.02110—21:54
23S. ReinhartC000-310.061002521:11
26R. DahlinD000-200.04010—19:47
10H. JokiharjuD000-120.04100—19:25
19J. McCabeD011+130.17020—17:33
68V. OlofssonL000-200.00100—17:05
33C. MillerD000-120.01520—16:56
21K. OkposoR000-110.2130010016:26
53J. SkinnerL101+180.69100—15:59
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.00400014:43
22J. LarssonL000010.130003814:02
13J. VeseyL011-120.09100—13:12
90M. JohanssonL011010.131204012:54
17W. SimmondsR000+100.00600—11:54
27C. LazarC000+120.123003310:39
95D. KahunC101010.24020010:37
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Hutton(L)27243.8892.55-0.4558:42

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).