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Golden Knights at Sabres
NHL

Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Vegas Golden Knights
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV ATTSN-RM, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Vegas Golden Knights 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack Eichel's goal at 7:57 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 81%. Expected goals were close — VGK 2.3, BUF 2.3; shots on goal were VGK 26, BUF 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.0 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 24 of 26 (.923). Three stars: 1. Sam Reinhart (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jack Eichel (1 G, 1 A), 3. Kyle Okposo (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    S. Reinhart1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Eichel1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    K. Okposo1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
VGKVGK04112110226
BUFBUF0132528426

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. VGK
    T. Nosek(6)
    C. Stephenson (7), S. Theodore (21)
    deflectedxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    1:55
  2. BUF
    K. Okposo(5)PPG
    S. Reinhart (22), C. Sheary (9)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    6:32
  3. BUF
    S. Reinhart(16)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (17), J. Eichel (33)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    19:41

3rd period

  1. VGK
    R. Smith(19)PPG
    S. Theodore (22), W. Karlsson (24)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    1:43
  2. BUF
    J. Eichel(28)
    S. Reinhart (23), C. Miller (6)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +29 pts
    2-3
    7:57
  3. BUF
    C. Lazar(4)EN
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.33win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    19:35

Penalties

VGK 8 PIM·BUF 8 PIM

1st

  • 14:29VGKAlex Tuch · Roughingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 14:29BUFEvan Rodrigues · Holdingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

2nd

  • 3:04BUFColin Miller · Trippingdrawn by Cody Eakin2 min
  • 5:16VGKMax Pacioretty · Interferencedrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min
  • 19:14VGKserved by J. Marchessault · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 1:36BUFColin Miller · Trippingdrawn by Tomas Nosek2 min
  • 1:36BUFColin Miller · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Nicolas Hague2 min
  • 12:53VGKNicolas Hague · Holding the stickdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalVGK goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Jack Eichel, 3rd 7:57 — BUF 52% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Lazar · Goal · xG 0.33J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.26S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.20M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.16S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.11S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.11J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.11C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.10K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.09J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.07C. Lazar · On goal · xG 0.07J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.07M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.06J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.05B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.05H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.03J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.03E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.01J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF4 G · 2.3 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

VGKvsBUF
2.32 G
All situations
3 G2.3
1.51 G
Even strength
1 G1.7
0.61 G
Power play
2 G0.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
VGK57%43%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 1.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

VGKvsBUF
26
Shots on goal
26
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/3
Power play
2/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
21
Hits
16
6
Blocked shots
18
6
Giveaways
9
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Vegas Golden Knights skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27S. TheodoreD022000.19000—23:04
88N. SchmidtD000000.00020—21:28
61M. StoneR000030.13000—20:05
3B. McNabbD000000.00220—19:03
67M. PaciorettyL000-150.25202—18:49
71W. KarlssonC011-210.100003818:43
22N. HoldenD000010.02200—18:43
19R. SmithR101-140.28000—17:57
81J. MarchessaultR000-220.272005016:14
26P. StastnyC000-130.410006215:47
5D. EngellandD000010.01110—15:47
89A. TuchR000-110.11202—15:29
14N. HagueD000010.03112—15:07
20C. StephensonC011+100.080002713:47
92T. NosekL101+120.1910010012:39
21C. EakinC000010.181007112:30
75R. ReavesR000000.00100—11:00
28W. CarrierL000010.01600—09:30
Vegas Golden Knights goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29M. Fleury(L)25223.8801.96-1.0458:22

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).