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Flames at Predators
NHL

Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
3
Nashville Predators
▸4
Final/OTTV ESPN+, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Calgary Flames 4-3 in overtime, Mikael Granlund scoring at 1:20. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Flames led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Andrew Mangiapane's goal at 19:17 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 48% to 98%. Expected goals were close — CGY 3.2, NSH 3.0; shots on goal were CGY 39, NSH 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. David Rittich stopped 34 of 38 (.895), 1.0 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 36 of 39 (.923). Three stars: 1. Mikael Granlund (2 G), 2. Juuse Saros (36 saves, .923), 3. Colton Sissons (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    M. Granlund2 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Saros36 saves, .923
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    C. Sissons1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CGYCGY01121611200339
NSHNSH1801721112438

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Sissons(9)
    C. Blackwell (6), J. Tinordi (4)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    19:28

2nd period

  1. CGY
    R. Andersson(5)
    M. Backlund (25), M. Tkachuk (34)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    0:26
  2. CGY
    M. Backlund(15)
    Unassisted
    deflectedxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    3:48

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(15)
    R. Ellis (25), C. Blackwell (7)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +38 pts
    2-2
    14:30
  2. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(16)
    M. Backlund (26), R. Andersson (16)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +49 pts
    3-2
    19:17
  3. NSH
    M. Granlund(16)
    F. Forsberg (25), R. Ellis (26)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +49 pts
    3-3
    19:59

Overtime

  1. NSH
    M. Granlund(17)
    R. Ellis (27), M. Duchene (27)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    1:20

Penalties

CGY 6 PIM·NSH 2 PIM

1st

  • 8:11CGYSam Bennett · Hookingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min

2nd

  • 13:56NSHRoman Josi · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 13:56CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min

3rd

  • 1:40CGYSam Bennett · Roughingdrawn by Dante Fabbro2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCGY goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Andrew Mangiapane, 3rd 19:17 — CGY 48% → 98%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.18M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.16F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.15C. Sissons · Goal · xG 0.15M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.13C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.12M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.12R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.12R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.11M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.11F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.08C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.08N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.07V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.06C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.06R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.05C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.04C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.03M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tinordi · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.02C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.02J. Tinordi · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.01K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH4 G · 3.0 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsNSH
3.23 G
All situations
4 G3.0
3.23 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 106 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY54%46%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.16 – 2.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsNSH
39
Shots on goal
38
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/0
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
2
13
Hits
9
13
Blocked shots
10
5
Giveaways
13
8
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7T. BrodieD000-110.04010—25:15
5M. GiordanoD000-120.05120—21:34
4R. AnderssonD112+250.60020—21:03
56E. GustafssonD000-210.04000—19:15
11M. BacklundC123+130.170004618:38
20D. ForbortD000-140.09130—18:34
28E. LindholmC000-310.080204018:09
19M. TkachukL011+130.26202—17:31
88A. MangiapaneL101+240.31100—16:45
55N. HanifinD000+210.04100—15:39
13J. GaudreauL000-230.22000—15:37
23S. MonahanC000-110.162006015:08
10D. RyanC000020.310104413:54
29D. DubeC000000.05000013:32
16T. RiederL000040.44000—12:52
93S. BennettC000020.06104011:33
77M. JankowskiL000010.100206011:31
17M. LucicL000010.20400—11:30
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33D. Rittich(O)38344.8952.97-1.0361:20

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).