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Capitals at Avalanche
NHL

Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche

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Washington Capitals
▸3
Colorado Avalanche
2
FinalTV ESPN+, NBCSN·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Colorado Avalanche 3-2. The Capitals came back from two goals down. The Avalanche led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was T.J. Oshie's goal at 17:56 of the third period, which took the Capitals' chances from 48% to 94%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 3.4 to 2.0; shots on goal were WSH 38, COL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Braden Holtby stopped 32 of 34 (.941); Philipp Grubauer stopped 35 of 38 (.921). Three stars: 1. T.J. Oshie (1 G), 2. Andre Burakovsky (1 G, 1 A), 3. Tom Wilson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    T. Oshie1 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    A. Burakovsky1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    T. Wilson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WSHWSH08111219338
COLCOL211011012234

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    A. Burakovsky(18)
    N. MacKinnon (47), V. Kamenev (6)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    2:54
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(19)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (48), A. Burakovsky (25)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    0-2
    16:05

2nd period

  1. WSH
    N. Backstrom(11)PPG
    J. Vrana (24), J. Carlson (53)
    tip-inxG 0.16win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    11:37

3rd period

  1. WSH
    T. Wilson(17)PPG
    J. Carlson (54), L. Eller (20)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +30 pts
    2-2
    12:48
  2. WSH
    T. Oshie(22)
    N. Jensen (5), L. Eller (21)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +46 pts
    3-2
    17:56

Penalties

WSH 8 PIM·COL 10 PIM

1st

  • 15:36WSHT.J. Oshie · High stickingdrawn by Ian Cole2 min

2nd

  • 6:49WSHLars Eller · Slashingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min
  • 10:32COLTyson Jost · High stickingdrawn by Nicklas Backstrom2 min
  • 13:04COLErik Johnson · High stickingdrawn by Radko Gudas2 min
  • 15:47WSHNic Dowd · Holdingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min
  • 16:47WSHLars Eller · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 18:57COLJoonas Donskoi · Slashingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min

3rd

  • 4:02COLIan Cole · Hookingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min
  • 11:13COLAndre Burakovsky · High stickingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalWSH goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: T.J. Oshie, 3rd 17:56 — WSH 48% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.18M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.17C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.14A. Burakovsky · Goal · xG 0.12P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.10S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.08A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.07G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.07N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.03I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01
COL2 G · 2.0 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WSHvsCOL
3.43 G
All situations
2 G2.0
2.11 G
Even strength
1 G1.3
1.32 G
Power play
1 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WSH73%27%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.30 – 1.97

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WSHvsCOL
38
Shots on goal
34
39%
Faceoffs
61%
2/5
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
27
Hits
14
16
Blocked shots
17
5
Giveaways
6
8
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Washington Capitals skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. CarlsonD022-120.12120—26:34
8A. OvechkinL000070.55300—25:48
19N. BackstromC101020.421103423:56
9D. OrlovD000010.09400—23:01
43T. WilsonR101040.331305020:28
77T. OshieR101+130.393022518:38
3N. JensenD011+110.07010—17:26
6M. KempnyD000000.00000—17:15
20L. EllerC022+100.110042116:24
13J. VranaL011+1100.51000—15:58
33R. GudasD000000.00410—13:56
62C. HagelinL000010.00000—13:21
34J. SiegenthalerD000000.00120—12:29
72T. BoydC000030.231202212:16
14R. PanikR000000.06210—12:15
26N. DowdC000-120.163028208:44
21G. HathawayR000-110.1512010008:04
28B. LeipsicL000-110.20210—07:25
Washington Capitals goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70B. Holtby(W)34322.9411.99-0.0159:33

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).