Avalanche at Capitals 6-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Colorado Avalanche

▸6

Washington Capitals

FinalTV ESPN+, NBCSWA·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Washington Capitals 6-3. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Zadorov's goal at 6:00 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 58% to 74%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.6, WSH 2.7; shots on goal were COL 25, WSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 29 of 32 (.906); Ilya Samsonov stopped 19 of 21 (.905). Three stars: 1. Nazem Kadri (1 G, 2 A), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 2 A), 3. Alex Ovechkin (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
N. Kadri1 G, 2 A
★★
M. Rantanen1 G, 2 A
★★★
A. Ovechkin1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	410	07	28	625
WSH	04	216	112	332

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

E. Johnson(1)
N. Kadri (1), A. Burakovsky (3)
wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
1-0
3:42
N. Zadorov(1)
M. Rantanen (4), N. MacKinnon (6)
wristxG 0.19win prob +15 pts
2-0
6:00
N. Kadri(2)
J. Donskoi (1), C. Makar (6)
wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
3-0
7:54
M. Rantanen(4)PPG
G. Landeskog (3), N. Kadri (2)
wristxG 0.14win prob +6 pts
4-0
9:25

2nd period

L. Eller(2)
A. Ovechkin (2)
wristxG 0.21win prob +5 pts
4-1
6:56
T. Oshie(4)
D. Orlov (2), E. Kuznetsov (2)
backhandxG 0.15win prob +9 pts
4-2
15:28

3rd period

M. Nieto(1)
T. Jost (1)
backhandxG 0.11win prob +7 pts
5-2
4:24
A. Ovechkin(5)
E. Kuznetsov (3), J. Carlson (9)
slapxG 0.04
5-3
17:39
N. MacKinnon(2)EN
M. Rantanen (5), G. Landeskog (4)
wristxG 0.57
6-3
19:20

Penalties

11 PIM·

25 PIM

1st

8:49Jonas Siegenthaler · Cross checkingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
9:44Tyler Lewington · Instigatordrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
9:44Valeri Nichushkin · Fightingdrawn by Tyler Lewington5 min
9:44Tyler Lewington · Fightingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin5 min
9:44Tyler Lewington · Misconductdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin10 min
16:28Evgeny Kuznetsov · Hookingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min

2nd

0:50Nikita Zadorov · Hookingdrawn by Lars Eller2 min
1:45Alex Ovechkin · High stickingdrawn by Erik Johnson2 min
5:06Tom Wilson · Hookingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
5:06Samuel Girard · Embellishmentdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min

3rd

15:39Gabriel Landeskog · Slashingdrawn by Evgeny Kuznetsov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

Biggest swing: Nikita Zadorov, 1st 6:00 — COL 58% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.7 xG · 45 att

←

attacks

attacks →

6 G · 2.6 xG · 36 att WSH

3 G · 2.7 xG · 45 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.65 G
All situations: 3 G2.7; 1.54 G
Even strength: 3 G2.2; 0.61 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

36%64%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.00 – 2.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 32; 42%
Faceoffs: 58%; 1/4
Power play: 0/2; 11
Penalty minutes: 25; 11
Hits: 29; 16
Blocked shots: 19; 8
Giveaways: 15; 7
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Colorado Avalanche skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
6E. JohnsonD	1	0	1	+1	3	0.06	2	0	0	—	26:06
29N. MacKinnonC	1	1	2	+2	2	0.75	0	1	0	44	23:28
92G. LandeskogL	0	2	2	-1	2	0.09	0	0	2	33	23:04
49S. GirardD	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	0	2	2	—	22:28
96M. RantanenR	1	2	3	+1	1	0.20	0	2	0	50	22:10
27R. GravesD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	1	3	0	—	18:18
8C. MakarD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	17:02
91N. KadriC	1	2	3	+1	3	0.51	2	0	0	55	16:34
28I. ColeD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.04	0	1	0	—	15:57
16N. ZadorovD	1	0	1	+1	1	0.22	0	2	2	—	13:55
72J. DonskoiR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	1	0	0	100	13:34
17T. JostC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	0	0	0	43	13:15
95A. BurakovskyL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.29	0	3	0	—	13:02
22C. WilsonC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	2	0	0	0	12:33
11M. CalvertL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	0	0	—	11:46
83M. NietoL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.11	0	0	0	—	11:33
41P. BellemareL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	36	10:40
13V. NichushkinR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.10	0	0	5	—	09:19

Colorado Avalanche goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31P. Grubauer(W)	32	29	3	.906	2.75	-0.25	59:16

Season series

Tied 1-1

Oct 146@3this game
Feb 133@2Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score