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Red Wings at Sabres
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
FinalTV FS-D, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Detroit Red Wings 3-2. The Red Wings scored first; the Sabres answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Reinhart's goal at 0:57 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.5 to 1.9; shots on goal were DET 29, BUF 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 22 of 25 (.880); Carter Hutton stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Marcus Johansson (1 G, 1 A), 2. Darren Helm (2 G), 3. Conor Sheary (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    M. Johansson1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    D. Helm2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    C. Sheary1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET11217010229
BUFBUF11011015325

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    D. Helm(7)
    A. Mantha (13)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    0:27
  2. BUF
    C. Sheary(8)
    M. Johansson (17), C. Lazar (5)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    1:03

2nd period

  1. DET
    D. Helm(8)
    A. Mantha (14), M. Green (7)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    7:02
  2. BUF
    M. Johansson(7)
    R. Dahlin (28), S. Reinhart (26)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +21 pts
    2-2
    14:59

3rd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(21)
    J. Eichel (39), H. Jokiharju (10)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +24 pts
    2-3
    0:57

Penalties

DET 6 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:21DETserved by A. Erne · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 13:19BUFCarter Hutton · Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min

2nd

  • 1:32DETFilip Hronek · Ps slash on breakawaydrawn by Conor Sheary0 min
  • 15:32DETAndreas Athanasiou · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Montour2 min
  • 16:36BUFRasmus Dahlin · High stickingdrawn by Valtteri Filppula2 min

3rd

  • 10:24BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Hookingdrawn by Darren Helm2 min
  • 17:05DETFilip Hronek · Boardingdrawn by Marcus Johansson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalDET goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Sam Reinhart, 3rd 0:57 — BUF 53% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.17S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.16R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.15E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.15C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.15C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.13S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.09C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.08M. Johansson · Missed · xG 0.08J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.08J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.08J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.07J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.07J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.07C. Sheary · Goal · xG 0.07J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.06M. Johansson · Missed · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.05B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.05J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.05J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.05M. Johansson · Goal · xG 0.04J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.04S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.04C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.03B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.01S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsBUF
1.92 G
All situations
3 G2.5
1.52 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET38%62%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.89 – 2.51

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsBUF
29
Shots on goal
25
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
15
13
Blocked shots
11
3
Giveaways
11
2
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
17F. HronekD000-120.02012—24:44
71D. LarkinC000+230.350105322:35
22P. NemethD000+110.04120—21:57
39A. ManthaR022+240.31200—19:36
3A. BiegaD000040.10120—19:20
25M. GreenD011000.01210—19:10
59T. BertuzziL000-120.13100—19:02
72A. AthanasiouC000-210.170024316:40
41L. GlendeningC000-210.022108916:30
43D. HelmC202+150.41000016:23
83T. DaleyD000-200.00020—16:00
28G. LindstromD000010.07100—15:39
51V. FilppulaC000-100.040004315:13
73A. ErneL000-120.17200—13:39
70C. EhnC000000.000102012:20
81F. NielsenC000-100.0010010011:53
8J. AbdelkaderL000020.063106709:56
29B. PerliniL000010.01010—03:49
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(L)25223.8802.53-0.4759:34

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).