Sabres at Red Wings 2-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Buffalo Sabres

▸2

Detroit Red Wings

FinalTV FS-D, MSG-B·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Detroit Red Wings 2-0. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake McCabe's goal at 11:40 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 2.8 to 1.6; shots on goal were BUF 25, DET 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 41 of 41 (1.000), 2.8 goals saved above expected; Jimmy Howard stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Linus Ullmark (41 saves, 1.000), 2. Sam Reinhart (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jake McCabe (1 G).

Three stars

★
L. Ullmark41 saves, 1.000
★★
S. Reinhart1 G, 1 A
★★★
J. McCabe1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	06	114	15	225
DET	012	08	021	041

Scoring

2 goals

2nd period

J. McCabe(1)
S. Reinhart (5), J. Eichel (9)
snapxG 0.01win prob +20 pts
1-0
11:40

3rd period

S. Reinhart(5)PPG
V. Olofsson (4), J. Eichel (10)
tip-inxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
2-0
1:15

Penalties

6 PIM·

6 PIM

2nd

0:50Victor Olofsson · High stickingdrawn by Filip Hronek2 min
6:50Andreas Athanasiou · Trippingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
19:19Taro Hirose · Hookingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min

3rd

6:23Trevor Daley · High stickingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
9:34Kyle Okposo · Interferencedrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
17:50Colin Miller · Trippingdrawn by Andreas Athanasiou2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DET

Biggest swing: Jake McCabe, 2nd 11:40 — BUF 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.8 xG · 46 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.6 xG · 31 att DET

0 G · 2.8 xG · 46 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.62 G
All situations: 0 G2.8; 1.01 G
Even strength: 0 G1.7; 0.61 G
Power play: 0 G1.0; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

29%71%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.64 – 2.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 41; 38%
Faceoffs: 62%; 1/3
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 6; 31
Hits: 23; 12
Blocked shots: 7; 6
Giveaways: 14; 4
Takeaways: 1

Box score

every player line

Buffalo Sabres skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
55R. RistolainenD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	5	3	0	—	26:01
33C. MillerD	0	0	0	0	5	0.16	3	2	2	—	20:09
26R. DahlinD	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	1	0	0	—	18:25
9J. EichelC	0	2	2	+1	2	0.13	1	1	0	17	18:16
19J. McCabeD	1	0	1	+1	1	0.01	2	2	0	—	18:15
58J. GilmourD	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	1	0	0	—	17:28
53J. SkinnerL	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	1	0	0	100	16:59
22J. LarssonL	0	0	0	0	1	0.20	3	0	0	56	16:57
23S. ReinhartC	1	1	2	+1	3	0.56	0	1	0	0	16:51
90M. JohanssonL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	36	16:31
28Z. GirgensonsC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	33	16:04
68V. OlofssonL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	0	0	2	—	15:27
10H. JokiharjuD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	1	0	—	15:04
17V. SobotkaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	0	14:47
21K. OkposoR	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	4	0	2	—	12:35
43C. ShearyL	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	0	—	12:17
37C. MittelstadtC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	50	11:25
71E. RodriguesC	0	0	0	0	5	0.14	1	1	0	0	10:29

Buffalo Sabres goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35L. Ullmark(W)	41	41	0	1.000	2.82	+2.82	60:00

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score